***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 -0.7 -1.2 -0.2 2.4 66.9 68.5 -3.3 -2.2 -1.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 -1.5 -1.5 -0.2 2.3 69.0 69.2 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 0.8 -0.4 -0.4 2.0 64.6 67.5 -2.5 -1.0 -0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 -4.2 -5.1 -3.4 1.8 59.9 63.9 -8.6 -5.5 -4.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 -1.6 -2.4 -2.9 1.8 59.7 64.0 -3.9 -2.7 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 -2.3 -2.8 -4.7 1.9 61.9 63.9 -4.7 -3.5 -2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 -1.2 -1.1 0.1 2.5 71.1 69.9 -4.0 -3.1 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -5.4 -6.1 -4.4 1.7 60.9 62.8 -8.4 -6.7 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 -0.7 -1.1 -2.3 1.9 59.0 64.4 -3.1 -2.4 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 -1.3 -2.2 -3.8 1.7 59.5 63.1 -3.4 -2.4 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 -1.5 -1.8 -3.5 1.8 59.7 63.5 -3.6 -2.8 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 -2.1 -2.6 -3.9 1.9 59.9 63.5 -4.3 -3.2 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 -1.7 -2.0 -4.1 2.0 63.6 64.1 -3.9 -3.1 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 -0.7 -1.6 -2.6 1.7 59.5 63.3 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 -1.1 -1.9 -2.3 1.8 59.4 64.8 -3.8 -2.4 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 -1.1 -1.5 -3.9 1.9 61.7 63.8 -3.3 -2.1 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 -1.4 -1.1 0.1 2.4 70.8 69.4 -4.2 -3.0 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 -2.8 -3.3 -4.5 1.6 58.6 61.7 -5.3 -3.9 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 -1.3 -1.2 -0.5 2.0 66.1 68.0 -4.1 -2.7 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -5.2 -5.6 -5.5 1.7 64.3 62.0 -8.8 -6.9 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 -0.7 -1.7 -1.1 2.0 62.1 66.0 -3.3 -2.5 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 -1.4 -1.6 -0.4 2.1 67.5 67.8 -3.7 -3.1 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 -1.2 -1.4 -0.8 1.8 61.8 65.9 -4.3 -2.5 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 -1.5 -2.4 -3.0 1.6 58.2 62.7 -4.1 -2.8 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 2.2 63.8 66.6 -3.1 -2.3 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 -1.6 -1.9 -4.2 2.0 66.1 64.4 -4.6 -3.2 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 2.4 66.8 68.3 -3.1 -2.6 -1.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 -1.6 -2.4 -3.3 1.8 59.7 63.8 -5.1 -2.8 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 -3.2 -3.9 -4.7 1.6 61.6 61.8 -5.6 -4.4 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 -0.9 -1.0 -0.3 2.2 67.7 68.9 -3.6 -2.5 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------