***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 2.4 65.1 65.1 -3.0 -1.9 -0.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 -1.9 -1.5 -0.6 2.0 60.4 62.6 -3.4 -2.3 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 1.0 0.1 -0.5 2.2 61.5 64.4 -2.4 -0.6 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 -4.3 -4.8 -3.0 2.3 63.4 65.6 -7.4 -5.9 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 -1.4 -1.9 -2.4 2.4 62.2 65.5 -3.6 -2.5 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -2.5 -2.9 -4.4 2.4 65.8 66.8 -5.2 -3.9 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 -1.9 -1.3 -0.4 2.2 61.9 63.2 -3.3 -2.2 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -5.3 -5.9 -4.1 2.2 64.1 64.6 -7.8 -7.0 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -0.9 -2.1 2.3 62.9 64.6 -3.8 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 -1.5 -1.3 -3.5 2.3 63.6 64.3 -4.3 -2.6 -1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 -1.4 -1.2 -2.9 2.5 65.1 66.8 -5.2 -2.7 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 -2.5 -2.7 -3.4 2.5 65.0 66.6 -5.9 -4.1 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 -1.9 -2.3 -3.7 2.6 66.3 67.1 -5.3 -3.0 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 -1.1 -0.7 -2.7 2.0 58.5 60.8 -2.8 -1.4 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 -0.9 -1.2 -1.9 2.2 65.6 66.3 -4.2 -1.7 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 -1.0 -0.8 -3.4 2.5 65.9 67.3 -4.0 -2.3 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 -2.0 -1.7 -0.5 2.0 61.5 62.0 -3.9 -2.2 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 -3.1 -3.3 -4.3 2.1 63.6 62.9 -7.1 -3.8 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 -1.6 -1.5 -0.8 2.0 59.2 62.4 -3.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -6.3 -6.5 -5.6 2.0 63.1 62.3 -11.0 -9.1 -5.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 -1.8 -1.7 -1.1 2.3 62.3 64.9 -3.4 -2.1 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 -2.3 -1.5 -0.9 1.9 59.8 61.3 -3.8 -2.6 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 -1.8 -1.4 -1.0 2.0 58.8 62.1 -3.6 -2.2 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -1.8 -2.9 2.1 61.4 62.2 -3.4 -2.6 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 -0.9 -0.9 -1.4 2.5 63.8 66.1 -3.6 -1.8 -0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 -2.0 -2.2 -3.7 2.6 66.0 67.1 -5.2 -3.2 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 -1.0 -1.1 -0.6 2.5 64.6 65.4 -3.4 -2.2 -1.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 -2.4 -2.4 -2.9 2.2 63.3 65.4 -6.3 -3.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 -3.5 -4.1 -4.7 2.0 62.9 62.3 -6.8 -5.2 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 -2.1 -1.8 -0.6 2.1 60.6 63.2 -3.2 -2.6 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------