***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 1.1 3.0 2.6 4.6 89.9 85.8 -3.7 -2.3 -0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 0.0 1.6 2.0 4.1 87.8 82.7 -4.6 -3.0 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 2.4 4.4 2.3 4.3 88.6 84.5 -2.6 -0.8 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 -1.6 -0.2 -0.3 4.1 85.9 83.0 -8.5 -7.1 -3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 -0.6 0.6 0.9 4.5 88.4 85.3 -4.5 -2.9 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 -0.8 -0.1 -1.4 4.4 87.9 85.1 -6.6 -3.4 -1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 0.3 1.9 2.1 4.2 87.0 82.9 -4.2 -2.8 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 -4.1 -3.0 -1.2 4.2 85.0 82.8 -9.2 -6.9 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 1.3 2.4 0.8 4.4 89.2 85.8 -4.2 -2.5 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 -0.6 0.2 -0.7 4.3 87.0 84.2 -4.8 -3.0 -1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 -0.5 0.7 0.3 4.5 89.3 85.6 -5.4 -2.7 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 -1.0 0.0 -0.3 4.4 86.5 84.0 -6.1 -4.0 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 -0.5 0.2 -0.5 4.4 87.0 84.4 -6.6 -3.0 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 0.3 1.2 0.0 3.9 82.2 79.3 -3.8 -2.1 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 -0.2 0.7 1.1 4.2 91.4 86.5 -3.9 -3.1 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 0.1 1.1 -0.3 4.5 87.8 85.1 -4.6 -1.9 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 -0.4 1.4 1.7 3.8 83.3 79.2 -4.5 -3.3 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 -1.9 -1.3 -1.5 3.9 84.0 80.5 -7.9 -4.3 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 0.5 1.7 1.9 4.1 87.3 83.0 -4.0 -2.9 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 -4.4 -3.2 -2.6 3.8 80.9 77.6 -10.4 -8.1 -4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 0.5 1.5 1.9 4.4 87.6 85.1 -4.3 -2.8 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 -0.7 0.9 1.6 3.8 82.1 78.6 -4.7 -3.2 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 -0.1 1.1 1.5 4.0 87.4 83.1 -3.6 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 -0.3 0.8 0.0 3.9 84.9 81.1 -4.3 -3.3 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 -0.2 0.9 1.9 4.6 89.9 85.8 -4.0 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 -0.8 0.6 -0.5 4.5 86.9 84.8 -6.1 -2.6 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 1.3 3.2 2.5 4.7 89.8 85.3 -3.7 -1.5 -0.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 -1.2 -0.3 -0.1 4.0 86.2 83.3 -4.8 -3.5 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 -1.9 -1.2 -2.1 4.0 83.2 80.4 -6.8 -4.6 -2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 0.7 2.6 2.2 4.2 88.3 84.2 -4.0 -2.9 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------