***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.5 3.3 4.2 5.7 99.2 97.9 -4.3 -0.9 0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.3 2.8 3.1 5.0 98.9 97.0 -3.9 -1.6 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.4 4.4 3.8 5.4 98.2 97.2 -2.3 -0.4 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 -2.5 -0.8 0.3 4.1 94.7 89.0 -7.7 -4.4 -2.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.6 2.8 5.7 99.2 96.9 -3.5 -2.2 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 -1.0 1.7 -0.2 5.1 98.5 93.5 -4.6 -3.0 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.8 3.5 5.3 99.1 97.4 -3.8 -1.1 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 -4.4 -2.2 -0.1 4.9 95.8 92.7 -9.6 -6.8 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.6 2.6 2.0 5.0 97.9 94.1 -3.0 -2.0 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 -0.2 1.9 0.3 4.7 96.0 91.5 -3.3 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.5 2.0 5.3 98.5 95.5 -3.7 -2.4 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -0.4 1.7 1.3 5.3 98.0 95.8 -4.7 -3.4 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 -0.4 2.5 1.2 5.3 97.3 93.7 -3.8 -1.7 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 1.0 1.7 0.3 3.5 87.0 83.5 -2.6 -1.4 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 0.4 2.3 1.5 3.8 92.5 88.3 -3.9 -1.5 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 0.4 3.4 1.4 5.2 98.7 94.5 -3.3 -1.3 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.0 1.6 2.6 4.5 97.0 94.4 -3.4 -1.5 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 -2.1 -1.0 -0.5 4.4 90.4 87.9 -6.1 -4.0 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.5 2.5 2.9 4.8 98.7 96.6 -3.5 -1.4 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 -3.4 -0.6 -0.9 5.0 92.6 90.4 -8.8 -6.9 -4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 1.3 2.8 3.6 5.5 98.5 96.8 -3.5 -1.5 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.0 1.7 2.4 4.2 96.1 93.3 -3.9 -1.6 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 0.0 1.5 2.4 4.5 98.0 95.4 -3.9 -1.7 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 0.1 1.5 0.9 4.2 92.0 88.5 -3.8 -1.8 -1.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.8 2.1 3.8 5.8 99.2 98.0 -4.0 -1.4 -0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.9 2.6 1.3 5.7 97.9 96.0 -4.6 -2.4 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.9 4.0 4.3 6.0 99.3 98.4 -4.1 -1.5 1.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 -0.9 1.2 0.5 3.9 92.7 87.1 -4.7 -2.9 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 -1.2 -0.2 -1.0 4.9 91.6 89.3 -6.9 -5.6 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 0.9 3.2 3.6 5.3 99.1 97.6 -4.1 -1.0 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------