***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 16.9 21.8 33.6 87.8 48.7 45.9 19.8 22.3 44.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 29.2 25.8 31.8 92.1 51.9 47.9 18.2 25.4 31.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 41.2 37.9 34.4 88.1 48.4 45.8 22.4 38.5 47.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 26.8 34.0 35.5 81.9 43.4 40.2 26.4 38.1 50.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 27.7 33.9 37.7 85.2 44.6 41.8 23.0 38.2 47.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 19.7 24.9 35.4 85.5 41.6 40.7 22.7 28.6 32.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.6 26.2 31.3 92.2 53.0 47.9 18.4 25.5 36.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 50.9 39.3 40.2 85.9 44.8 42.3 32.8 42.0 60.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 19.5 24.7 40.4 89.2 44.9 44.6 20.8 26.8 36.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 22.4 27.0 42.9 90.1 45.7 44.9 22.4 27.6 40.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 23.6 24.1 34.9 85.3 45.2 41.7 21.2 30.9 38.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.5 33.5 82.7 41.6 39.5 22.5 27.1 41.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 24.2 27.6 34.4 84.3 43.5 39.9 26.4 28.4 33.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 51.8 49.5 44.8 93.3 51.4 47.6 36.2 48.4 57.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 21.0 30.9 31.3 73.8 41.7 37.0 21.6 40.4 51.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 20.7 25.0 32.2 81.7 42.1 39.0 21.5 26.9 37.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.8 24.0 29.7 91.4 48.7 46.7 13.1 25.8 33.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 34.6 26.3 48.2 92.3 46.6 46.0 21.2 29.0 38.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 33.9 30.8 32.9 91.8 51.4 47.9 22.1 30.3 37.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 25.9 29.1 51.6 84.7 41.8 42.1 25.0 35.7 47.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 35.7 29.7 36.8 87.8 45.6 44.4 22.3 31.3 42.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 30.0 24.3 31.7 91.8 48.2 46.6 16.4 25.8 41.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 32.8 31.5 35.7 91.8 51.5 48.1 19.8 29.0 38.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 40.6 35.0 43.3 92.1 47.4 46.3 29.8 36.3 44.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 34.4 27.7 39.2 86.9 47.7 44.5 25.0 28.4 45.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 15.7 18.0 32.5 79.7 36.3 37.5 17.3 24.5 37.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 33.4 27.6 37.8 89.9 51.2 46.9 17.9 27.0 43.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 18.7 24.2 32.0 76.8 40.7 37.3 20.6 30.3 44.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 50.4 40.7 51.1 92.6 46.8 46.6 36.7 41.5 61.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 30.9 27.0 32.4 91.0 51.1 47.6 20.3 26.5 31.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------