***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.4 8.1 101.5 62.7 50.5 3.1 4.8 7.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.3 7.9 7.7 114.7 67.4 53.6 1.7 4.6 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.2 10.3 8.1 101.0 58.7 50.6 4.5 6.1 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.8 10.5 7.7 82.2 52.7 46.0 6.3 10.3 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.9 6.0 8.2 84.9 52.3 46.7 1.7 5.5 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.2 6.0 8.2 80.6 54.5 44.9 3.0 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.9 7.7 7.7 114.2 67.4 53.2 2.3 4.3 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.5 14.2 9.3 85.3 53.7 45.7 6.9 13.3 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.9 5.4 9.0 89.6 51.7 47.9 2.6 5.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.0 9.6 89.3 53.2 47.7 3.5 7.8 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.3 7.4 79.4 49.1 44.2 3.9 7.3 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.6 7.5 79.0 50.9 43.3 1.9 9.1 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.2 7.6 7.7 78.7 50.8 44.2 6.2 7.5 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.1 13.3 10.6 105.6 62.2 52.0 8.6 9.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.6 6.5 74.7 56.4 43.5 4.9 9.2 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.4 6.9 75.3 49.8 43.1 3.0 6.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.4 7.3 114.5 66.9 54.7 1.6 4.7 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.9 11.3 97.2 57.5 50.2 5.6 7.9 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 12.1 8.0 113.0 67.4 53.0 3.1 6.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.6 10.9 13.1 94.3 62.5 48.5 4.7 9.0 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.1 8.4 92.2 53.7 48.3 3.8 7.8 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.1 7.6 114.0 66.9 55.1 2.7 5.4 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.5 8.5 109.1 65.1 52.0 3.5 7.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.0 10.1 100.6 57.6 50.6 5.6 10.5 16.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.5 10.7 9.5 98.4 59.2 50.8 3.3 6.8 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.4 7.9 81.8 56.2 44.4 1.3 3.5 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.4 9.3 105.3 63.8 51.7 2.9 4.9 7.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.5 6.7 74.9 52.5 43.6 4.0 5.9 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.3 14.4 12.5 100.7 61.9 51.0 8.9 12.8 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.2 10.3 7.9 111.5 66.6 52.7 2.0 4.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------