***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 0.5 1.2 9.4 86.7 51.5 44.4 0.1 1.2 1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 0.4 1.1 8.1 81.0 46.7 41.6 0.3 1.1 3.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 0.7 1.8 9.8 89.9 51.0 43.2 0.7 1.5 3.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.1 10.1 88.2 54.7 43.0 2.5 3.8 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 1.5 4.6 11.7 100.0 57.5 46.3 1.4 3.1 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 3.1 2.0 10.5 93.2 55.4 46.3 0.5 1.4 2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.4 0.8 7.8 78.6 48.1 41.9 0.3 0.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 1.7 5.4 12.0 95.2 58.9 45.1 1.6 3.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 0.9 3.2 12.8 104.1 61.7 48.1 0.7 2.0 4.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 1.7 5.4 13.3 102.8 61.8 47.8 0.5 3.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.1 3.5 11.0 100.4 58.6 45.7 0.4 2.3 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 0.9 2.2 10.2 95.0 55.9 44.2 0.5 2.0 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.3 10.6 98.0 54.0 46.6 0.9 1.7 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 1.9 4.3 13.1 100.5 54.7 45.9 1.3 3.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 0.6 2.0 7.9 71.3 53.4 37.6 0.5 1.5 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 0.8 2.5 10.1 97.1 57.2 45.0 0.8 1.6 4.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 0.6 1.5 7.2 77.0 49.5 41.4 0.4 1.5 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.3 4.6 14.7 103.6 61.4 48.9 1.5 2.8 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 0.4 1.2 8.6 85.1 48.2 41.9 0.3 1.2 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.7 14.9 89.6 55.1 45.6 1.4 3.3 5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.2 3.1 11.3 98.0 56.8 46.5 1.1 2.7 3.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 0.5 1.4 7.9 81.3 50.7 41.6 0.1 1.4 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 0.4 1.0 9.9 92.3 51.0 43.0 0.3 0.9 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 1.8 4.8 12.9 100.9 57.8 46.6 1.4 3.8 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 0.8 2.3 11.3 91.3 56.5 46.2 0.5 1.8 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.6 1.3 9.6 89.1 51.7 43.8 0.6 1.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 0.8 1.8 10.6 88.9 54.4 45.8 0.3 1.7 3.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 0.9 2.3 8.9 82.2 54.3 40.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.4 15.2 100.8 58.5 48.2 2.8 5.6 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 0.4 1.1 8.5 82.8 47.9 41.9 0.3 1.1 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------