***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 5.1 6.8 12.5 138.5 69.8 64.2 1.5 4.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.1 8.6 12.0 135.1 70.4 61.1 1.4 3.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 10.9 12.4 12.9 132.9 70.9 63.4 5.0 7.4 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.9 11.9 115.3 68.2 58.3 3.5 7.9 10.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 8.4 13.8 13.5 127.9 69.8 62.1 3.2 6.2 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.6 12.6 129.9 69.6 61.4 1.2 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.0 7.1 11.7 138.1 68.1 61.5 2.5 3.7 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 18.7 20.7 14.8 135.8 75.0 63.2 3.9 9.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 11.9 13.3 14.8 135.3 75.0 64.5 1.5 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 13.6 15.5 15.7 138.9 75.4 64.6 0.9 5.6 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.6 9.3 12.6 130.5 71.8 61.7 1.0 4.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.2 11.1 12.2 128.4 72.9 61.4 1.3 4.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.6 12.7 12.4 131.8 72.7 62.6 2.0 5.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 15.3 17.0 16.8 141.4 76.5 64.4 6.5 10.6 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.1 10.5 99.0 65.3 53.6 0.9 4.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.7 9.8 11.5 125.1 69.3 60.1 1.1 6.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.5 10.4 11.0 134.7 70.4 60.4 1.2 3.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 11.1 12.2 17.6 142.7 75.9 65.5 1.5 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.6 12.4 133.4 70.7 61.6 3.6 7.1 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 11.7 13.2 18.9 138.0 73.9 63.7 2.4 7.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 9.7 11.5 13.6 134.9 72.9 64.4 2.9 6.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.2 10.9 11.7 132.0 70.5 60.5 1.9 4.8 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.2 10.6 13.4 133.4 70.8 62.5 2.7 7.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 14.7 16.5 16.1 139.9 76.0 64.6 4.2 10.0 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 7.9 9.4 13.9 131.8 67.9 62.5 4.3 7.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.1 10.9 11.5 124.3 72.5 61.2 1.5 4.4 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 6.5 8.1 13.7 138.5 68.9 63.5 2.3 5.7 8.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.7 10.9 10.7 106.5 67.3 55.1 0.4 2.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 19.8 24.1 18.6 144.9 76.8 65.5 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.8 6.8 12.2 135.1 70.2 62.0 2.8 4.0 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------