***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 2.6 3.2 3.5 34.2 32.1 25.3 3.9 10.7 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 2.3 5.1 4.0 44.9 41.4 31.1 3.7 7.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 4.2 5.7 3.6 34.7 31.4 25.4 7.2 12.4 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 3.0 7.0 5.7 47.3 35.9 28.6 6.7 11.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 3.5 5.1 4.2 34.4 25.9 23.3 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 3.1 4.2 4.2 40.4 33.7 25.9 4.2 7.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 3.0 6.7 4.2 46.9 42.4 32.7 3.6 9.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 6.9 6.8 4.1 33.4 23.7 21.7 7.3 10.9 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 1.8 1.2 3.9 32.0 23.5 22.1 4.0 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 2.2 1.6 4.3 34.2 23.2 22.2 5.2 9.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 2.9 7.3 3.9 35.4 27.1 24.1 8.3 9.9 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 2.8 5.7 3.6 33.6 26.4 21.6 6.9 9.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 3.1 2.7 3.7 34.3 24.9 22.7 4.5 10.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 4.4 6.7 4.4 33.5 28.9 23.1 7.9 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.5 6.3 6.4 53.2 43.4 32.8 2.0 7.9 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 2.1 3.8 3.8 35.1 29.4 23.6 5.3 10.0 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.6 7.4 4.2 48.8 44.5 33.6 4.1 8.1 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 1.9 2.6 4.6 32.8 22.4 20.0 4.2 7.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.5 5.6 3.9 42.1 38.8 28.7 4.9 6.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 3.1 3.3 4.8 28.6 19.4 17.8 6.8 9.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 2.8 2.9 3.6 31.8 24.2 21.9 5.0 9.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 2.7 5.2 4.3 47.6 42.4 29.9 3.7 6.0 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 2.8 2.5 3.9 37.6 34.6 26.2 2.5 7.1 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 3.6 3.8 4.2 33.4 24.6 22.3 8.3 9.8 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 3.8 5.9 4.5 35.8 31.7 24.6 6.2 11.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 2.3 3.6 3.5 31.4 21.9 22.2 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 3.0 7.0 4.1 36.6 32.1 25.9 7.1 10.1 13.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 2.6 4.4 5.6 47.7 39.0 29.6 3.4 7.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 5.8 5.8 4.7 31.9 21.9 19.6 8.3 13.6 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 2.0 6.0 3.9 41.8 39.2 29.5 3.3 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------