***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 5.0 4.3 4.4 1.6 62.3 63.6 2.9 3.4 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 4.7 4.1 4.5 1.9 63.1 64.4 1.6 3.6 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 5.9 5.4 4.6 1.7 62.1 63.7 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.4 1.4 2.6 1.9 67.3 67.0 -0.4 0.6 1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 5.5 5.4 3.2 1.8 64.6 66.3 3.8 4.3 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 5.2 4.7 2.3 1.4 63.1 64.7 3.0 4.1 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 4.2 3.9 4.3 1.8 63.3 64.3 1.4 3.0 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 0.4 0.6 2.9 1.7 65.2 66.8 -1.4 -0.4 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 6.3 6.3 4.0 1.8 64.8 66.5 4.2 5.5 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 5.5 5.5 3.4 1.7 64.6 66.3 3.1 4.6 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 5.8 5.0 3.1 1.6 63.0 65.9 3.8 4.5 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.0 3.0 1.5 63.5 65.4 4.1 5.4 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 4.7 5.0 2.7 1.3 60.6 64.2 3.3 4.3 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 6.8 6.5 4.4 1.8 64.6 64.9 4.0 5.8 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 5.7 5.7 3.4 2.2 70.0 69.2 2.2 3.3 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.6 5.6 2.7 1.5 61.6 65.0 4.0 5.3 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.3 3.6 4.4 2.0 63.4 64.9 1.3 3.1 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 3.5 3.3 3.4 1.7 64.6 66.2 1.7 2.9 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 5.2 4.6 4.6 1.9 63.6 64.5 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 2.8 3.1 2.1 1.7 66.6 68.1 0.7 1.7 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 5.8 5.8 4.3 1.7 62.7 64.9 3.8 5.0 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 5.1 4.7 4.6 2.0 66.3 65.7 2.2 3.7 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 5.0 4.5 4.7 1.9 64.4 64.8 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 6.9 6.5 4.2 1.7 62.9 64.8 4.0 6.1 6.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 4.6 4.7 3.3 1.7 62.8 65.1 2.2 3.3 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 4.5 4.7 2.4 1.3 61.4 64.6 3.5 4.2 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 5.6 5.5 3.9 1.6 62.3 63.8 2.8 4.4 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 6.0 6.9 3.0 2.0 67.3 67.4 2.9 3.7 6.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 3.4 3.2 2.8 1.7 65.5 66.8 1.4 2.7 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 4.5 4.3 4.5 1.8 63.6 64.0 1.5 3.2 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------