***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 4.4 4.1 4.3 1.4 53.9 56.1 2.0 3.7 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.4 4.5 1.9 60.1 59.3 1.0 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.7 4.5 1.5 55.8 56.7 1.9 4.4 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.8 0.6 2.4 1.6 56.9 58.6 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.4 2.8 1.2 54.4 55.7 2.1 3.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.7 1.7 0.6 48.9 51.3 2.3 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.4 4.0 4.3 1.8 59.0 59.0 0.9 2.8 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.2 0.9 2.2 0.8 52.1 53.2 -1.6 0.7 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.1 3.5 1.1 53.5 54.8 2.5 4.8 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.1 2.9 0.9 52.0 53.4 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.3 2.6 1.0 53.6 54.3 2.0 4.1 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.2 2.4 0.8 51.0 53.1 3.3 4.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.1 1.9 0.5 47.9 51.0 2.2 4.4 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.3 4.0 1.2 52.8 54.5 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.1 3.0 1.9 66.3 62.0 2.2 4.2 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.8 2.2 0.9 51.1 53.5 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.1 4.5 4.5 2.0 60.6 60.0 0.7 2.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 2.6 1.8 2.8 0.8 47.4 52.2 0.7 2.0 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.8 4.7 1.9 60.9 58.9 0.9 3.6 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 1.8 0.5 1.2 0.7 46.6 52.1 -0.1 1.0 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.4 4.0 1.3 53.4 55.6 1.9 4.1 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.0 5.2 4.7 2.0 61.8 59.9 0.8 3.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 3.8 5.1 4.7 1.7 61.1 57.8 1.3 2.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.9 4.9 3.8 1.1 50.4 53.8 2.7 4.9 7.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.9 3.6 2.9 1.3 53.7 56.4 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.0 1.7 0.5 48.2 51.4 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 4.3 3.8 3.5 1.2 53.2 55.7 2.1 3.6 5.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.2 5.9 2.7 1.6 59.1 59.3 2.7 4.4 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.4 2.2 0.7 46.9 51.7 -0.3 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.0 4.5 1.7 59.0 58.5 0.8 3.4 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------