***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 7.2 6.2 4.8 2.3 64.6 64.6 0.1 3.2 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 6.3 5.9 4.9 2.7 66.0 66.7 0.3 2.7 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 8.0 7.8 5.0 2.5 64.1 65.9 2.7 4.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 3.6 2.4 3.0 2.6 68.0 67.0 -2.0 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 7.2 6.7 3.4 2.5 67.1 66.3 1.8 4.1 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 7.4 5.8 2.9 2.5 67.9 67.3 1.2 4.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 5.8 4.9 4.8 2.6 65.1 66.5 0.0 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 1.6 0.8 3.2 2.5 69.3 68.2 -2.0 -0.5 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 8.2 8.3 4.2 2.4 66.8 65.7 2.7 4.8 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 7.1 6.5 3.8 2.5 68.0 66.9 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 7.7 6.6 3.4 2.5 68.3 67.3 1.8 4.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.5 7.8 3.4 2.5 68.3 67.9 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 7.6 6.6 3.0 2.4 66.4 67.1 1.4 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 8.7 9.7 4.8 2.7 68.9 67.0 2.2 4.9 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 6.5 7.0 3.4 2.7 68.0 68.5 1.1 2.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 8.5 7.1 3.1 2.5 67.5 67.1 2.4 5.6 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 5.9 5.5 4.9 2.7 67.6 66.9 0.0 2.7 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 4.0 3.7 3.8 2.5 68.0 67.1 0.4 2.6 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 7.4 7.1 5.1 2.7 66.0 66.6 0.9 2.9 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 4.5 4.2 2.5 2.5 70.7 68.4 -0.9 1.9 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 8.0 7.6 4.5 2.4 65.7 65.1 2.4 4.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.0 5.1 2.8 68.5 67.4 0.2 2.8 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 6.4 6.3 5.2 2.7 66.5 66.6 1.7 3.1 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 8.9 9.4 4.6 2.6 65.1 66.6 3.0 5.3 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 6.2 5.6 3.5 2.3 65.7 65.0 1.2 3.5 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 6.5 5.4 2.8 2.2 64.6 66.4 2.9 4.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 7.7 7.6 4.1 2.2 65.0 64.4 2.3 4.5 7.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.3 8.3 3.3 2.7 68.6 67.8 1.4 3.0 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 5.6 4.8 3.3 2.5 67.9 67.3 0.8 2.9 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 6.4 6.0 4.9 2.6 64.8 66.2 0.4 3.2 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------