***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.1 4.0 0.7 51.4 52.8 1.8 4.9 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.3 4.8 3.6 0.6 49.3 51.0 1.7 5.0 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.4 6.7 3.9 0.5 50.5 51.4 3.1 6.7 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -1.1 2.3 2.3 1.3 57.0 57.5 -2.4 1.9 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.8 6.5 3.4 1.4 59.7 59.0 2.6 5.0 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.3 2.5 0.9 56.0 57.4 1.7 3.9 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.0 3.5 0.6 50.6 51.9 1.5 5.0 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 1.0 1.0 3.5 1.8 69.3 64.1 -2.2 -0.4 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.2 8.0 4.3 1.6 63.1 61.1 3.5 6.5 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 7.8 7.0 3.8 1.6 63.8 61.9 3.1 5.1 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 1.7 6.2 3.4 1.2 58.7 58.7 3.3 4.9 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.4 7.6 3.4 1.3 63.3 60.7 3.1 5.1 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.3 3.6 1.1 59.9 59.5 2.5 4.4 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.6 4.2 1.2 56.4 57.2 4.2 7.2 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.5 3.8 1.7 65.1 60.5 2.0 4.7 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.0 3.1 1.0 56.6 57.6 2.6 5.4 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.5 3.3 0.7 51.0 52.6 1.4 4.3 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 5.2 4.9 3.9 1.8 63.7 63.8 0.8 2.5 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 6.3 5.7 3.6 0.6 49.4 51.2 2.8 5.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 4.5 5.4 3.2 2.2 75.3 68.2 -1.5 2.3 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.9 4.3 1.0 55.5 55.9 3.1 6.5 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.4 3.6 0.8 51.8 53.3 2.4 5.1 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.5 3.7 0.7 51.2 52.6 2.2 5.5 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.6 4.2 1.2 56.9 58.1 4.4 7.4 8.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.6 4.9 3.6 1.0 55.7 55.7 2.1 4.4 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 7.4 5.8 3.2 1.2 63.3 61.8 1.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.2 3.8 0.7 53.0 53.6 2.3 6.3 8.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.8 6.5 3.0 1.3 58.1 57.7 3.6 6.0 6.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 4.7 5.3 3.5 2.1 69.9 66.7 -0.5 1.3 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.1 3.7 0.5 49.7 51.1 1.7 5.1 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------