***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 -1.5 -1.7 -1.4 1.4 51.8 55.8 -3.0 -1.9 -0.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -1.8 -1.8 -1.2 1.7 58.4 58.6 -3.4 -2.3 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 -0.1 0.0 -1.6 1.7 57.7 58.8 -2.4 -0.6 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 -4.2 -5.3 -4.3 1.9 56.8 60.9 -7.4 -5.9 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -2.0 -4.5 1.5 54.3 57.1 -3.6 -2.5 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -5.8 -3.9 -6.6 0.9 50.2 53.7 -5.2 -3.9 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2 1.7 56.9 58.0 -3.3 -2.2 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -6.5 -6.6 -6.0 1.0 53.1 53.7 -7.8 -7.0 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -1.9 -3.5 1.5 50.1 56.5 -3.8 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -2.4 -5.0 1.2 52.4 55.1 -4.3 -2.6 -1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -2.5 -5.1 1.4 51.0 56.1 -5.2 -2.7 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -3.6 -3.9 -5.4 1.3 52.6 54.6 -5.9 -4.1 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -2.6 -3.0 -6.0 0.9 48.9 52.6 -5.3 -3.0 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 -1.1 -0.8 -3.3 1.6 56.8 58.6 -2.8 -1.4 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 -0.9 -1.4 -3.1 2.4 60.5 64.2 -4.2 -1.7 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -2.1 -5.6 1.4 51.8 56.1 -4.0 -2.3 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 -1.9 -1.8 -1.0 1.8 56.5 58.8 -3.9 -2.2 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -3.6 -3.5 -5.5 1.1 53.7 54.6 -7.1 -3.8 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 1.8 59.2 59.4 -3.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -8.2 -9.1 -7.6 0.3 50.2 50.3 -11.0 -9.1 -5.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -1.8 -2.1 -2.2 1.6 52.0 57.4 -3.4 -2.1 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 -2.2 -1.5 -1.0 1.9 59.2 59.3 -3.8 -2.6 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 -0.8 -1.4 -1.7 1.8 58.6 60.6 -3.6 -2.2 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -2.3 -3.6 1.5 56.4 57.9 -3.4 -2.6 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -1.5 -1.3 -3.2 1.6 54.9 58.4 -3.6 -1.8 -0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -2.7 -3.4 -5.9 0.8 47.9 52.3 -5.2 -3.2 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 -1.9 -2.2 -2.4 1.4 52.0 56.0 -3.4 -2.2 -1.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 -2.4 -2.8 -4.0 2.1 57.8 62.1 -6.3 -3.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -4.7 -5.1 -6.4 0.7 51.7 52.3 -6.8 -5.2 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 -2.0 -2.0 -1.3 1.7 58.1 58.2 -3.2 -2.6 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------