***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 -1.7 -1.3 -0.4 2.6 60.8 65.5 -3.7 -2.3 -0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 2.8 64.6 68.1 -4.6 -3.0 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 1.3 1.4 -0.5 2.9 63.9 68.0 -2.6 -0.8 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 -2.7 -2.1 -2.8 3.7 70.4 72.7 -8.5 -7.1 -3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 -1.1 -1.3 -2.7 3.6 69.1 71.5 -4.5 -2.9 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 -1.2 -1.1 -4.2 3.7 73.4 74.1 -6.6 -3.4 -1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 2.8 64.1 67.6 -4.2 -2.8 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 -4.7 -4.2 -3.5 3.9 72.8 74.0 -9.2 -6.9 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 0.2 0.0 -1.8 3.5 66.2 70.3 -4.2 -2.5 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 -1.2 -0.7 -2.8 3.8 70.5 72.6 -4.8 -3.0 -1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 -1.0 -1.1 -3.1 3.6 69.2 70.8 -5.4 -2.7 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 -1.8 -1.6 -3.3 3.6 69.3 71.4 -6.1 -4.0 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 -1.0 -0.4 -3.8 3.4 69.8 70.5 -6.6 -3.0 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 0.1 0.3 -1.8 3.5 70.9 72.2 -3.8 -2.1 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 -1.0 -0.6 -2.1 3.5 69.2 71.9 -3.9 -3.1 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 -0.4 -0.3 -3.6 3.6 68.8 71.1 -4.6 -1.9 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 -0.9 -1.4 -0.2 2.8 64.2 67.5 -4.5 -3.3 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 -2.2 -1.8 -3.1 4.0 73.1 74.9 -7.9 -4.3 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 2.9 65.3 68.6 -4.0 -2.9 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 -4.6 -3.5 -4.4 4.3 78.3 77.0 -10.4 -8.1 -4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 3.1 66.2 68.5 -4.3 -2.8 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 2.9 66.0 68.7 -4.7 -3.2 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 3.0 66.5 69.7 -3.6 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 -0.7 -0.4 -1.9 3.6 69.5 72.5 -4.3 -3.3 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 -0.8 -0.7 -1.8 3.2 67.6 70.1 -4.0 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 -1.2 -1.1 -3.6 3.4 71.1 70.3 -6.1 -2.6 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 0.2 -0.3 -1.0 2.8 63.5 66.9 -3.7 -1.5 -0.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 -1.6 -1.3 -2.7 3.7 70.0 72.1 -4.8 -3.5 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 -2.3 -1.8 -3.7 4.1 73.0 75.0 -6.8 -4.6 -2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 2.8 63.8 67.7 -4.0 -2.9 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------