***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 1.2 57.1 57.1 -4.3 -0.9 0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 1.6 60.6 60.4 -3.9 -1.6 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 -0.1 1.4 -0.9 1.4 59.3 59.2 -2.3 -0.4 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 -3.0 -2.7 -2.3 2.5 71.8 70.3 -7.7 -4.4 -2.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 -2.0 -1.4 -2.2 1.9 61.1 63.4 -3.5 -2.2 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 -1.7 -1.0 -3.5 2.8 76.2 74.5 -4.6 -3.0 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 1.8 59.7 61.6 -3.8 -1.1 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -5.2 -4.6 -2.9 2.7 71.6 71.5 -9.6 -6.8 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 -1.7 0.6 -2.0 2.1 61.9 63.7 -3.0 -2.0 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.7 2.4 66.1 67.1 -3.3 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 -2.1 -1.4 -2.7 1.9 61.2 64.8 -3.7 -2.4 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 -3.0 -2.2 -2.8 2.1 65.5 66.2 -4.7 -3.4 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 -1.5 -1.4 -3.3 1.8 62.8 64.5 -3.8 -1.7 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 0.3 0.2 -1.7 2.5 67.4 69.6 -2.6 -1.4 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 -0.2 0.6 -1.1 2.5 78.4 73.5 -3.9 -1.5 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 -0.4 -0.7 -3.1 2.0 64.3 66.5 -3.3 -1.3 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 -1.3 -0.7 -0.9 2.0 61.0 62.7 -3.4 -1.5 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 -2.6 -2.4 -2.7 3.0 68.5 71.3 -6.1 -4.0 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 -1.1 -0.4 -1.0 1.5 60.7 60.6 -3.5 -1.4 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 -4.3 -3.8 -3.5 3.2 74.2 74.5 -8.8 -6.9 -4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 -1.2 -0.1 -1.2 1.4 59.5 58.1 -3.5 -1.5 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 -1.4 -0.9 -0.8 1.9 60.8 63.2 -3.9 -1.6 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 -0.7 -0.6 -1.2 1.6 61.6 63.0 -3.9 -1.7 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 -0.6 -1.2 -1.8 2.5 64.5 68.0 -3.8 -1.8 -1.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 1.7 60.9 62.7 -4.0 -1.4 -0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 -1.4 -1.0 -2.7 2.2 71.3 70.0 -4.6 -2.4 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 -1.0 0.4 -0.9 1.4 59.3 59.6 -4.1 -1.5 1.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 -1.5 -1.0 -2.0 2.5 72.6 70.7 -4.7 -2.9 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 -2.2 -1.4 -3.2 3.5 73.4 74.7 -6.9 -5.6 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 1.5 59.2 59.7 -4.1 -1.0 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------