***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 20.0 21.4 31.5 74.9 35.0 36.4 21.4 33.3 42.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 14.1 22.1 26.2 71.3 33.1 34.7 22.1 27.8 45.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 26.9 27.2 31.5 74.4 33.1 35.7 27.1 43.4 47.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 26.9 34.3 36.9 77.6 37.9 36.9 28.3 41.8 51.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 27.0 34.3 40.3 83.3 39.5 39.2 26.6 39.3 54.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 20.8 26.3 39.6 88.2 42.3 41.4 22.3 28.0 31.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 15.7 21.9 25.7 72.2 34.6 34.9 20.8 27.0 41.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 31.4 40.7 43.8 87.5 41.1 41.1 34.0 42.3 61.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 20.3 27.6 41.1 84.1 38.5 39.7 18.3 33.9 37.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 24.0 31.7 45.7 90.2 43.1 42.6 25.4 33.5 41.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 24.4 24.8 40.0 84.6 38.9 39.8 21.4 34.6 46.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 23.6 22.2 38.3 83.0 37.0 38.7 21.6 30.5 40.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 24.4 27.6 44.4 89.6 42.8 42.5 26.2 30.8 36.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 36.4 42.2 41.7 78.8 37.4 37.7 40.4 46.5 58.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 23.0 18.5 31.1 70.4 36.1 35.1 15.6 43.4 56.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 19.9 23.5 39.4 84.0 39.0 39.7 22.7 31.4 43.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 14.1 16.2 25.3 70.2 32.8 34.1 16.4 26.1 34.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 23.8 30.3 48.3 91.3 44.9 42.4 24.5 31.5 43.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 18.9 23.0 27.3 71.2 32.3 34.6 23.5 31.8 44.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 25.6 31.7 57.1 89.1 42.3 41.8 29.4 35.5 56.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 24.6 28.2 37.5 80.4 37.2 38.1 25.8 40.8 47.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 18.9 15.4 27.1 70.0 33.2 34.2 15.4 29.6 44.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 21.9 20.7 30.1 72.0 32.3 34.7 20.9 32.5 40.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 31.0 39.6 41.3 83.7 40.6 39.2 34.2 44.5 46.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 27.1 30.9 39.0 80.8 40.7 39.0 27.4 40.1 51.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 14.8 18.2 40.3 86.4 40.6 40.5 16.7 22.3 34.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 23.0 23.8 34.6 78.6 39.0 38.5 19.1 36.2 46.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 20.3 20.7 33.5 75.5 37.6 36.8 18.6 35.5 49.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 39.0 47.6 51.3 90.3 43.6 42.0 43.0 51.4 70.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 17.3 19.1 27.0 71.8 33.1 34.9 19.0 29.0 40.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------