***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 1.5 4.0 8.6 81.2 49.0 41.6 0.6 4.0 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.9 7.2 79.4 50.3 42.3 0.3 2.9 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.0 8.5 79.8 48.7 41.5 0.9 6.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.1 10.9 10.4 90.4 57.5 43.9 5.9 9.8 12.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.5 10.7 87.3 52.2 42.7 1.4 5.3 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.7 10.3 85.2 54.5 43.6 1.0 4.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.4 3.6 7.1 81.9 53.0 42.4 0.6 3.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.4 10.9 11.4 86.8 51.7 42.7 4.9 10.3 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.1 5.7 11.3 87.2 51.8 42.8 1.1 4.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.0 5.2 11.9 87.6 50.9 42.8 1.3 4.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.5 10.3 86.6 53.9 42.8 2.3 5.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.0 5.1 10.0 84.4 52.7 42.1 1.8 4.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.9 10.5 82.5 52.2 41.6 2.5 6.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.2 5.7 11.3 80.5 47.6 41.5 2.9 7.5 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.8 6.7 10.2 92.2 59.9 45.5 2.1 4.3 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.7 5.1 10.1 85.4 54.1 42.4 1.3 3.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 0.8 2.2 7.3 81.3 53.6 42.0 1.2 1.9 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.4 13.1 91.8 52.5 43.8 2.3 5.3 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.9 4.0 7.4 77.4 48.9 42.1 0.5 4.4 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 2.2 5.5 15.9 93.5 56.3 43.7 3.2 4.6 7.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.6 10.4 87.0 49.9 42.0 1.9 5.7 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.6 3.5 7.8 79.7 49.9 42.6 0.7 3.5 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.1 8.2 76.5 48.0 41.4 1.1 5.5 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.7 6.9 11.2 85.9 48.9 42.6 1.9 7.5 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.7 4.7 10.4 87.3 51.4 42.2 0.8 4.4 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 1.3 2.8 10.0 83.4 51.0 42.3 1.1 2.8 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.6 9.2 83.1 49.4 41.6 0.3 3.8 6.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.9 9.8 89.2 57.8 44.1 1.4 4.6 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.4 14.4 94.0 54.6 44.2 3.7 7.4 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.5 3.3 7.5 79.8 49.9 42.4 0.6 3.3 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------