***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 2.8 4.4 11.2 119.9 66.1 56.6 0.0 0.8 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.6 5.5 9.0 114.4 66.5 55.6 0.9 1.6 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 4.7 8.7 11.5 124.2 69.8 57.1 0.7 2.4 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.2 13.3 122.5 68.2 55.3 1.4 4.6 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.6 8.1 13.7 125.8 66.6 55.6 1.7 5.4 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.2 4.6 12.7 127.1 69.7 55.2 0.5 2.8 4.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.0 4.5 8.9 114.2 66.4 55.1 0.5 1.2 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.5 13.4 120.9 67.3 53.7 2.1 7.5 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 3.8 6.3 14.6 128.5 67.7 56.4 0.4 2.7 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.7 14.2 123.0 66.0 54.0 0.7 5.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.8 8.0 13.0 127.2 68.1 55.3 0.4 4.1 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.0 9.2 12.6 127.9 70.1 55.6 0.7 2.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.2 7.4 13.5 129.1 69.5 56.2 0.5 2.6 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.2 13.6 113.8 64.2 55.1 2.4 4.3 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 9.1 11.8 114.5 68.0 53.1 0.8 2.8 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.9 8.1 13.0 128.6 68.0 56.0 0.6 3.9 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.2 5.2 8.3 106.0 64.7 53.3 1.2 2.6 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.5 7.4 14.8 120.8 64.3 53.8 1.5 3.9 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.3 6.8 9.5 115.4 66.7 56.2 1.1 2.1 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 1.7 7.4 16.5 109.7 61.9 51.8 2.1 3.4 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 4.0 7.2 13.6 128.0 69.8 57.2 0.9 2.6 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.9 8.6 102.8 62.7 52.9 0.5 3.3 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.0 7.1 10.6 116.7 67.2 56.6 0.5 1.8 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.2 13.8 123.3 68.2 55.8 1.3 3.1 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.4 7.0 12.9 118.2 64.6 56.5 0.9 3.9 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 1.0 7.4 12.6 126.7 69.4 54.4 0.8 2.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.1 6.3 11.6 116.8 63.9 56.4 0.3 2.1 6.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.4 9.8 12.6 123.6 69.4 54.5 0.5 3.0 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.8 10.8 15.3 115.7 62.8 53.3 1.7 6.1 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.4 5.6 9.5 116.1 67.1 55.8 0.4 2.0 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------