***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.1 8.8 84.6 55.1 46.1 1.6 4.5 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.9 4.0 7.7 80.0 51.3 44.2 1.8 3.9 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.3 7.1 8.0 76.1 47.5 43.2 3.8 7.2 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.7 10.8 9.8 87.7 52.9 45.4 3.4 10.0 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.3 9.1 9.3 83.0 49.1 44.3 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.1 8.7 10.0 100.8 58.9 47.5 2.7 6.4 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.9 7.9 85.2 54.3 46.1 1.8 4.0 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.5 12.8 10.0 85.4 48.2 43.8 7.8 13.1 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.0 7.1 9.3 80.4 45.8 43.8 3.5 8.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.1 8.3 9.5 81.9 46.6 42.9 3.0 9.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.2 9.4 83.5 48.2 43.5 2.8 8.3 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.1 9.6 86.3 50.3 43.9 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.1 10.6 95.4 56.3 46.1 3.3 6.8 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.2 11.6 11.4 86.6 51.8 45.8 7.7 10.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.3 3.5 8.0 79.7 52.3 42.4 0.9 3.0 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.7 9.8 92.6 54.0 47.1 2.7 6.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.7 7.9 83.8 53.9 45.3 1.8 3.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.2 6.8 10.4 84.3 48.2 44.3 2.7 7.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.0 5.6 7.9 79.7 51.0 44.0 2.1 5.4 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.5 6.9 13.2 87.9 48.7 45.3 2.8 7.3 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.9 9.0 79.2 45.7 44.1 4.5 7.4 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 1.7 6.2 8.8 88.8 56.6 46.7 2.6 4.1 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.1 5.2 8.4 78.8 50.2 43.0 2.9 5.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.9 9.1 9.8 81.5 49.1 44.0 5.1 9.3 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.2 10.6 90.5 51.1 47.5 3.6 7.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.4 7.4 10.3 92.4 55.8 44.9 2.3 4.4 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.9 10.2 92.9 55.4 48.6 3.2 4.2 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.1 3.9 8.3 82.3 52.4 42.7 0.8 2.5 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.0 9.8 11.5 85.3 48.7 44.8 6.8 9.9 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.3 4.6 7.7 79.6 51.0 43.8 2.1 4.6 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------