***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 5.7 8.0 2.9 24.6 34.5 30.5 7.1 12.1 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.8 5.7 2.3 22.3 32.7 27.6 5.8 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 7.6 9.0 3.4 28.8 36.2 30.8 8.8 15.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 3.0 4.9 3.5 24.5 30.9 27.1 5.3 9.3 16.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.4 6.7 47.2 40.7 37.6 5.4 9.6 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.9 4.7 6.7 50.4 40.1 38.1 3.9 6.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 3.5 4.4 1.8 18.2 30.2 27.1 4.6 10.0 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.4 8.6 9.1 63.3 43.0 40.1 5.3 11.9 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.7 4.9 5.8 45.1 39.7 36.5 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.9 8.1 10.1 71.0 47.1 43.8 4.9 8.8 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.1 5.9 7.3 52.3 41.0 38.0 3.6 8.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.2 6.1 45.8 37.7 34.7 5.4 7.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.6 5.7 9.9 64.1 43.6 41.1 3.6 7.7 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 8.7 8.9 5.5 39.4 35.4 32.6 8.1 18.3 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 0.5 0.3 1.0 8.1 21.3 17.2 2.2 5.6 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.1 4.6 6.6 45.3 38.7 35.5 2.2 7.8 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 3.0 4.8 1.8 18.2 30.1 25.5 5.0 8.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.9 7.7 10.0 70.0 47.1 43.2 4.0 9.4 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 4.7 6.0 2.5 23.7 32.8 28.0 6.0 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.4 11.4 67.2 44.1 41.3 5.2 10.2 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.5 7.8 4.5 35.4 38.1 33.6 6.6 10.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 3.3 3.5 1.9 17.9 28.8 24.7 4.1 8.9 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 4.9 5.9 2.9 25.5 32.9 28.5 6.0 11.3 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 6.7 8.5 6.4 49.3 40.4 37.0 7.7 11.9 17.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 16.8 8.4 5.1 36.9 38.3 36.1 6.9 14.6 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.7 5.3 7.3 54.3 37.6 38.3 4.3 8.2 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 7.8 3.6 29.7 36.7 33.7 7.0 10.5 13.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 1.6 2.2 2.8 20.9 28.1 24.2 3.2 5.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.4 13.2 10.1 67.6 44.9 42.0 11.7 15.6 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 4.1 6.1 2.4 22.5 32.8 28.1 6.1 9.6 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------