***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 4.0 3.4 3.4 0.2 46.6 48.3 2.6 3.4 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.0 3.4 3.7 0.5 46.9 51.3 1.9 3.6 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.7 3.9 0.2 47.0 49.3 3.9 4.7 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.6 0.4 1.3 0.5 53.4 53.4 -0.5 0.2 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.3 2.1 0.1 46.5 49.0 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.5 1.2 -0.3 42.7 45.2 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.4 2.8 3.6 0.4 46.6 50.2 1.5 3.0 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.0 -0.3 1.8 -0.1 46.6 48.2 -1.5 -0.2 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.3 3.1 0.2 48.7 50.6 4.4 5.4 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.2 2.3 -0.1 46.7 48.2 3.4 4.3 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.5 2.3 0.1 48.2 49.7 3.9 4.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.8 4.9 2.1 0.0 47.2 48.6 4.1 5.4 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.3 1.8 -0.3 43.0 45.5 3.2 4.6 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 6.1 5.7 3.7 0.2 47.0 50.1 3.9 5.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.1 4.5 2.8 1.1 59.9 59.6 2.1 3.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.9 1.8 0.0 45.2 48.0 4.1 5.1 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.4 2.9 3.7 0.6 48.5 52.5 1.3 2.9 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.1 2.7 2.3 -0.2 45.6 47.2 1.7 2.9 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.5 3.8 0.5 46.7 51.3 2.6 3.7 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.4 0.8 -0.4 42.4 44.7 0.8 1.8 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.7 3.4 0.1 46.9 48.5 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.1 3.5 3.9 0.6 47.8 52.6 1.9 3.7 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.4 4.0 0.5 47.4 51.7 2.6 3.7 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.0 5.1 3.5 0.1 47.7 49.3 4.5 5.6 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 3.5 2.9 2.1 -0.1 44.7 46.4 2.5 3.0 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.2 3.7 1.3 -0.3 40.3 44.2 3.3 4.4 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.0 3.8 2.9 -0.1 43.5 45.9 3.2 4.5 5.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.7 2.0 0.7 54.9 55.0 2.8 4.0 5.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.2 1.4 1.8 -0.2 44.5 46.9 1.1 2.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.8 3.1 3.6 0.4 46.3 50.2 1.8 3.3 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------