***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.0 2.6 -0.6 44.0 45.6 2.5 3.2 4.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.7 2.4 2.7 -0.4 44.4 46.6 1.7 2.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.5 3.6 2.9 -0.7 44.3 44.9 3.0 4.1 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.9 -0.1 0.1 -0.6 46.1 46.3 -1.6 0.2 1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.4 1.2 -0.6 44.8 45.6 3.4 4.9 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.7 1.1 -0.4 45.6 47.1 3.1 4.6 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.4 2.5 2.8 -0.4 44.0 46.7 1.4 2.8 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.1 -0.9 1.4 -0.5 46.3 46.8 -2.0 -0.6 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.0 2.0 -0.7 44.4 45.3 3.8 5.7 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.1 1.8 -0.6 45.5 46.3 3.4 4.3 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.4 1.4 -0.6 44.2 46.1 3.3 4.8 5.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.0 1.5 -0.5 45.3 46.3 4.2 5.0 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.7 1.3 -0.3 44.2 47.5 3.1 4.1 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.6 2.7 -0.7 44.7 45.7 3.5 4.8 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.0 0.6 -0.7 44.9 46.1 3.3 4.1 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.6 1.2 -0.4 44.3 46.6 3.8 5.5 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.4 2.9 -0.3 44.7 47.4 1.6 2.6 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.6 2.1 -0.4 46.8 47.4 2.2 2.7 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.2 2.8 2.8 -0.6 44.4 46.0 1.8 3.3 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.5 1.7 0.9 -0.1 47.8 49.0 0.4 1.9 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.1 2.4 -0.8 43.0 44.7 3.0 4.4 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.5 2.9 -0.4 45.4 46.7 2.5 3.6 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 3.8 2.6 3.0 -0.7 45.3 45.0 1.8 3.1 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.0 2.6 -0.6 45.3 45.9 3.6 4.6 6.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.9 2.9 1.2 -0.6 45.4 45.7 2.1 3.5 4.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.0 1.3 -0.2 45.5 47.2 2.8 4.3 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.3 3.2 2.3 -0.5 45.0 45.9 2.4 3.8 4.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.3 0.4 -0.7 45.7 46.2 3.8 4.6 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 1.8 1.7 -0.3 47.3 48.1 1.1 1.9 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.9 2.9 2.6 -0.5 44.9 46.1 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------