***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.1 3.0 0.1 50.4 51.3 1.9 5.0 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.2 3.3 0.6 50.6 53.6 1.4 4.1 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.0 3.5 0.3 50.9 52.5 2.1 5.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.5 52.6 54.3 -1.7 -0.2 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.8 1.7 0.2 50.4 51.8 1.9 4.8 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.8 3.7 1.1 -0.1 49.2 49.1 2.4 3.7 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.1 3.2 0.5 52.1 53.3 0.9 3.6 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.5 1.0 1.5 -0.1 49.0 49.8 -0.9 1.0 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.4 2.4 0.0 51.0 50.9 2.0 6.4 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.6 1.9 -0.1 50.1 49.5 1.4 4.5 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.1 1.7 0.1 50.3 50.9 1.7 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.3 1.6 0.0 48.2 50.1 3.0 5.3 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.1 1.0 -0.2 46.9 48.4 2.0 4.3 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.5 3.0 0.0 50.3 50.8 1.7 6.5 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.7 1.9 0.9 54.4 57.0 1.3 3.8 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.0 1.3 0.0 48.7 50.2 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.8 3.5 0.6 52.1 54.2 0.6 3.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.2 2.0 -0.3 47.6 48.4 0.4 2.5 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.1 3.5 0.5 50.4 53.4 0.8 5.0 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.0 0.6 -0.2 47.2 48.6 -0.7 2.3 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.3 2.9 0.1 51.2 51.6 2.1 5.1 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.6 3.5 0.6 51.7 53.9 1.1 3.6 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.8 3.7 0.4 50.6 52.9 1.3 4.6 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.1 2.9 0.0 49.2 50.6 2.6 7.2 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.5 1.6 0.1 49.3 50.7 2.2 3.6 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.2 1.1 0.0 46.9 49.8 2.1 4.4 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.5 2.5 0.0 49.3 50.1 2.9 4.7 6.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.8 4.0 1.3 0.6 53.0 54.8 1.0 3.6 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.6 2.8 1.6 -0.3 46.7 48.0 0.7 2.9 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.0 3.2 0.4 50.0 52.8 1.2 4.0 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------