***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 4.0 4.5 4.5 1.2 53.4 56.7 0.4 2.9 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 4.1 4.2 4.7 1.4 57.5 58.3 0.6 3.4 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 6.1 6.8 5.1 1.3 55.9 57.8 1.7 5.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 2.1 2.9 2.7 1.6 62.9 61.7 -2.3 1.4 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.4 6.3 3.4 1.0 56.4 57.4 1.7 4.6 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.5 2.4 0.7 57.3 55.5 1.4 4.6 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.9 3.4 4.5 1.2 54.4 56.7 0.5 3.2 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -0.5 3.0 0.8 56.1 56.4 -2.6 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.8 4.4 1.2 59.0 58.7 2.6 6.0 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.0 6.2 3.6 0.9 57.3 56.9 2.9 4.3 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.3 6.2 3.7 1.1 58.6 58.4 2.5 4.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.3 3.3 0.9 56.9 57.3 2.7 6.3 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.0 6.0 3.1 0.7 56.5 55.7 2.6 4.1 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.4 8.0 5.0 1.2 59.3 58.2 2.3 5.3 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 7.2 6.7 4.3 2.3 69.9 67.8 1.0 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.7 3.1 1.0 58.0 57.4 2.8 5.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 3.3 3.4 4.5 1.3 56.5 58.1 0.3 2.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.8 3.4 0.7 54.6 54.9 1.5 2.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 4.5 5.6 4.9 1.5 58.5 59.0 0.4 3.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.5 1.7 1.7 0.1 50.1 51.5 -0.6 1.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.6 7.0 4.8 1.1 55.6 57.3 1.7 6.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 4.0 4.2 4.8 1.4 58.5 59.2 1.2 2.9 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.5 5.2 1.6 59.3 59.9 1.2 4.2 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.6 4.7 1.1 57.8 57.5 2.6 6.5 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.8 4.6 3.4 0.8 52.2 55.1 1.1 4.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.2 2.3 0.3 51.7 52.8 2.1 5.1 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.2 3.9 0.8 51.2 54.2 1.0 6.1 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 7.7 6.8 3.6 1.9 65.7 63.8 1.1 4.0 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.2 2.8 0.5 52.7 54.2 0.6 2.8 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 4.6 4.3 4.7 1.4 56.4 57.8 0.3 4.0 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------