***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 5.0 3.7 3.5 0.0 43.9 43.5 2.8 4.6 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 4.8 3.7 4.1 0.6 44.3 47.8 2.0 4.3 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 7.0 5.4 4.0 0.1 43.7 45.1 3.1 6.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.8 0.2 1.4 0.4 47.1 49.2 -1.4 1.0 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.4 4.5 2.1 -0.3 42.1 43.8 3.0 4.6 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.5 1.6 0.0 -1.5 32.5 35.3 1.8 4.5 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 4.4 3.2 3.8 0.4 43.3 46.2 1.5 4.0 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.4 -1.9 1.5 -0.5 37.2 43.7 -2.8 0.0 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.5 6.6 3.4 0.3 47.6 48.4 3.0 6.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.6 2.1 -0.4 40.7 43.7 2.2 5.4 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.5 5.0 2.6 -0.2 44.0 45.1 2.9 6.0 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.3 5.1 1.9 -0.3 38.3 44.2 3.2 6.6 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.1 3.3 1.5 -1.3 35.3 36.6 2.7 5.3 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 7.9 6.3 4.1 0.2 44.6 47.1 3.0 7.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 5.3 5.7 4.2 2.0 65.9 65.2 1.4 3.4 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.4 3.9 1.6 -0.6 38.2 40.9 3.2 6.9 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 4.2 3.6 4.1 0.8 47.2 49.8 1.8 3.8 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 0.5 1.2 1.8 -0.7 37.2 41.8 1.1 2.9 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 5.7 4.3 4.2 0.6 45.3 48.5 2.3 5.4 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 -1.6 -0.9 -0.1 -1.5 30.9 36.7 -0.6 2.1 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.6 5.0 3.7 -0.1 43.1 43.9 2.8 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 4.5 3.9 4.3 0.8 46.6 49.9 2.7 4.2 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 5.2 4.8 4.3 0.7 48.1 50.5 2.0 4.9 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 7.9 6.4 3.6 -0.1 41.5 45.0 4.1 7.5 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.5 2.8 2.2 -0.7 37.5 38.6 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 1.2 1.5 0.4 -1.5 31.5 35.4 1.5 4.9 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 5.8 4.1 2.8 -0.5 38.3 39.1 3.3 5.1 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.2 5.4 2.6 0.8 53.1 53.8 3.3 4.4 6.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.8 0.7 1.2 -0.8 36.1 41.1 -0.2 2.5 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 5.1 3.8 4.0 0.4 43.9 46.5 2.0 4.8 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------