***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -2.8 -4.4 -1.1 36.5 41.4 -3.0 -1.6 -0.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 -2.2 -3.2 -4.0 -0.6 40.2 44.3 -3.7 -2.6 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 -0.3 -1.5 -4.3 -1.0 36.4 42.4 -1.7 -0.6 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -8.2 -6.6 -7.5 -1.1 36.7 42.7 -6.8 -6.2 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 -4.5 -3.7 -7.1 -1.2 36.1 42.1 -4.0 -3.4 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -5.4 -5.4 -8.9 -1.2 35.5 41.7 -5.6 -3.6 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -2.0 -3.3 -3.9 -0.7 39.7 43.9 -3.9 -2.3 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -8.7 -8.1 -8.7 -1.5 35.5 40.3 -8.3 -6.8 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -3.1 -2.6 -6.5 -1.2 36.0 41.8 -3.0 -1.8 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -3.8 -3.6 -8.0 -1.4 35.2 40.6 -3.6 -2.7 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -4.2 -3.8 -8.1 -1.5 34.7 40.9 -4.0 -2.7 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -5.5 -5.0 -8.5 -1.5 34.7 40.8 -5.1 -3.6 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -8.8 -1.5 32.4 40.7 -4.9 -3.7 -2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 -2.9 -2.3 -6.5 -1.2 36.1 42.0 -2.6 -1.8 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -4.0 -2.7 -6.2 -0.9 37.8 44.6 -3.2 -1.8 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 -3.8 -3.2 -8.5 -1.5 33.8 40.9 -3.3 -2.5 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -3.4 -3.6 -0.4 42.3 45.8 -4.1 -2.7 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -4.3 -5.8 -8.6 -1.4 36.0 40.7 -5.9 -4.8 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -3.0 -4.2 -0.7 39.3 43.8 -3.1 -2.4 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -9.6 -9.2 -9.5 -1.5 34.1 40.3 -9.4 -7.2 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 -2.0 -3.2 -5.2 -1.1 36.9 42.1 -3.5 -2.5 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -3.1 -4.0 -0.5 41.5 45.2 -3.4 -2.5 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -2.5 -4.7 -0.9 38.8 43.0 -3.3 -2.0 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 -2.4 -3.9 -6.9 -1.2 36.0 41.9 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 -3.2 -3.4 -5.9 -1.1 36.1 41.4 -3.5 -1.7 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -4.6 -4.1 -8.7 -1.3 36.7 42.3 -4.6 -2.7 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -3.6 -3.3 -5.0 -1.2 35.8 41.2 -3.6 -2.5 -1.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -5.2 -4.3 -7.3 -1.1 36.3 43.4 -4.4 -2.9 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -6.7 -6.0 -8.9 -1.4 35.9 40.6 -6.1 -5.5 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 -1.9 -2.5 -4.1 -0.8 38.7 43.0 -3.0 -2.3 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------