***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 -1.6 -2.4 -2.2 0.6 47.8 50.8 -4.6 -2.3 -0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 -2.2 -2.7 -1.9 0.9 49.4 53.3 -4.9 -2.7 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 0.1 -0.4 -1.9 0.9 50.1 53.2 -2.5 -0.4 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 -5.0 -5.2 -4.2 0.9 54.2 55.5 -8.7 -5.6 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 -1.9 -2.4 -4.3 0.3 47.3 49.6 -5.0 -2.2 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -3.4 -6.6 0.1 46.1 49.3 -6.5 -2.6 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 -1.9 -2.5 -1.9 0.9 48.9 52.7 -4.7 -2.5 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -6.4 -7.4 -6.3 0.0 47.2 48.7 -9.6 -6.9 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 -1.5 -2.3 -4.0 0.6 48.0 51.3 -4.0 -1.9 0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 -1.9 -2.7 -5.7 0.1 46.5 48.8 -4.7 -2.2 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 -1.7 -2.2 -5.1 0.1 47.1 48.6 -5.0 -1.9 -1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -2.6 -3.8 -5.6 0.1 46.7 48.9 -5.8 -2.9 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -3.3 -6.2 -0.3 44.8 45.9 -4.9 -2.4 -0.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 -1.4 -1.9 -4.0 0.6 48.7 52.1 -3.4 -1.8 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 -1.7 -1.2 -2.5 1.5 60.7 60.7 -4.0 -2.1 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 -1.0 -1.5 -5.6 0.2 47.0 48.9 -4.4 -1.2 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 -2.5 -3.0 -1.7 1.0 49.8 54.0 -5.2 -2.9 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -3.5 -4.0 -6.0 0.2 48.2 49.9 -6.8 -3.9 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 -1.5 -2.0 -2.0 0.9 49.5 53.3 -4.9 -1.9 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -11.3 -7.5 -7.5 -0.4 43.6 46.5 -9.7 -7.1 -4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 -1.5 -1.9 -2.7 0.7 49.5 52.3 -4.6 -1.8 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 -2.4 -2.8 -1.8 1.0 49.6 53.8 -5.2 -2.8 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 -1.8 -2.3 -2.4 0.9 48.6 52.8 -4.3 -2.3 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 -1.9 -2.2 -4.1 0.7 50.9 52.5 -3.9 -2.2 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 -1.4 -2.4 -3.3 0.2 46.0 48.7 -4.3 -1.7 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 -5.8 -4.7 -6.2 -0.5 38.6 43.5 -5.2 -2.0 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 -0.9 -1.7 -2.7 0.3 46.9 49.0 -4.4 -1.4 0.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 -2.7 -2.2 -3.8 1.2 57.6 57.8 -4.8 -3.1 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -3.4 -3.9 -7.0 0.0 47.3 48.7 -6.6 -3.9 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 -1.6 -2.2 -1.9 0.9 49.5 52.7 -4.6 -2.2 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------