***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 21.7 29.2 37.0 88.8 46.0 44.7 21.0 34.3 44.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 19.7 30.5 31.9 86.5 47.8 44.5 24.1 31.7 47.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 29.6 40.1 34.4 84.3 43.0 42.6 27.0 43.8 52.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 28.3 37.6 39.2 86.8 46.0 42.9 28.1 42.4 53.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 27.6 38.2 40.9 89.2 45.7 43.9 33.3 41.7 51.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.2 24.4 37.3 87.9 44.6 42.7 22.5 27.0 33.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.3 31.6 32.4 89.0 48.9 45.4 25.4 31.7 40.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 33.9 40.9 42.3 86.4 41.5 41.2 37.9 44.6 57.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 20.4 27.0 41.7 89.8 43.4 44.3 20.3 29.0 41.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 25.4 32.0 43.5 88.5 42.5 42.6 23.4 35.0 43.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 24.7 29.4 39.5 88.0 43.2 42.3 25.4 36.3 46.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 23.7 26.8 37.6 85.5 41.3 40.5 26.5 31.2 42.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 36.3 30.5 41.8 88.9 43.6 42.3 26.9 32.0 40.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 33.8 43.1 42.2 83.7 40.2 41.2 38.9 48.3 66.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 27.3 32.6 33.5 81.0 47.0 41.5 19.4 42.7 55.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 22.8 26.5 39.3 88.7 45.4 42.9 22.8 33.0 45.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 32.2 25.5 31.9 87.5 47.4 45.0 18.2 26.4 36.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 23.5 24.9 44.6 85.5 38.6 41.0 22.9 32.4 45.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 21.7 31.8 32.1 84.7 46.8 43.3 23.8 32.6 51.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 26.2 35.0 53.9 83.6 39.5 40.3 31.3 37.8 56.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 25.7 33.9 39.4 89.0 43.7 44.5 24.7 39.9 50.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 21.4 29.5 33.5 87.1 47.9 44.4 20.8 31.4 45.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 23.6 28.1 33.4 83.0 43.5 41.8 20.3 34.5 40.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 29.5 35.9 39.8 83.7 39.5 41.1 31.7 42.6 54.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 28.5 37.4 43.1 90.8 48.1 45.4 27.3 40.6 51.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 16.3 19.3 38.3 87.3 43.8 41.6 16.3 22.4 35.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 27.3 42.8 40.1 90.7 48.2 45.6 19.0 42.9 50.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 22.2 32.8 35.2 84.3 46.2 42.4 20.4 34.8 52.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 39.3 45.4 47.2 83.5 37.4 39.6 42.2 53.3 70.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 21.8 32.7 32.2 85.5 46.2 43.6 17.4 34.7 43.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------