***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.8 8.0 79.8 49.9 43.9 0.1 3.8 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.2 7.0 78.8 52.3 43.4 0.3 2.8 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.1 5.1 7.6 78.0 49.3 44.3 0.5 5.3 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.8 9.8 9.6 88.8 55.8 47.0 2.8 8.4 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.9 10.0 88.9 49.3 46.3 0.8 4.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.1 9.6 90.0 50.3 44.6 0.6 5.0 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.0 2.6 6.8 78.0 52.1 42.5 0.2 2.2 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.0 9.2 10.5 88.8 50.6 44.6 4.4 9.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.1 10.2 87.4 48.8 47.0 0.9 4.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.9 3.8 10.5 86.9 48.7 45.6 1.4 4.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.0 9.6 88.7 49.9 45.1 1.0 4.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 1.9 4.8 9.4 89.5 50.1 44.2 1.7 4.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.2 9.9 86.5 46.1 44.0 2.2 5.3 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 2.6 5.5 9.5 78.6 47.8 42.7 2.7 6.1 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.3 6.4 8.6 84.9 60.1 45.1 1.7 5.1 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.4 9.6 89.1 49.0 45.3 0.7 3.8 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 0.9 2.1 6.7 75.4 52.3 41.4 0.0 1.9 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.4 10.6 84.0 47.1 44.9 2.0 5.3 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.9 7.2 79.6 51.2 44.0 0.3 4.5 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.6 13.6 85.5 50.2 44.3 2.2 4.5 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.9 9.1 83.4 49.7 46.0 0.4 4.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.1 3.5 7.3 79.4 53.3 42.3 0.0 2.6 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.2 7.6 79.1 49.9 43.4 0.3 4.3 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.0 4.0 9.2 80.3 48.2 44.0 1.9 4.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.6 9.6 83.7 51.4 45.2 0.2 4.2 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.0 2.8 10.0 92.4 52.5 43.4 0.9 2.4 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.6 3.5 8.6 80.5 50.6 43.6 0.1 3.5 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.9 9.1 89.8 58.1 46.4 0.9 4.6 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.9 11.2 82.1 47.0 44.0 4.1 7.0 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 0.9 3.1 7.1 78.3 51.6 43.5 0.3 2.0 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------