***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 2.2 1.3 9.9 88.3 52.2 46.7 0.0 0.7 4.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 3.4 2.3 7.8 79.0 51.8 46.1 1.0 2.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 1.4 3.3 9.0 82.5 51.5 46.6 0.9 2.9 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.7 10.6 90.2 55.9 46.6 1.1 4.5 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.5 10.5 90.7 54.4 45.9 1.9 5.1 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.3 3.3 10.4 96.7 57.3 46.1 0.5 2.9 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 2.7 1.1 7.8 80.8 51.0 45.4 0.8 1.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.5 11.9 97.9 58.1 47.2 2.1 5.8 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.7 11.6 94.6 55.9 47.7 0.4 2.7 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.3 6.0 11.9 96.1 57.6 47.9 0.7 5.1 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.7 5.5 10.5 95.2 58.1 46.9 0.4 3.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.1 4.0 10.8 98.4 58.1 47.0 0.4 2.6 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.3 4.1 11.4 99.9 58.4 47.2 0.9 2.7 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.0 10.7 82.0 50.4 46.2 3.2 4.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.5 10.0 87.2 59.2 46.2 1.2 4.3 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.7 10.6 97.2 57.9 47.5 1.2 4.0 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.4 2.7 7.3 75.7 49.6 44.1 1.2 2.7 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.5 12.4 93.3 54.9 48.0 1.3 3.6 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.3 2.7 7.8 77.4 51.4 46.0 1.0 2.6 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.8 15.4 94.2 54.5 47.0 1.3 3.3 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.2 4.8 10.8 93.1 55.3 47.8 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.4 7.6 74.7 50.6 44.1 1.5 3.3 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.4 2.8 8.0 75.1 50.6 45.2 0.7 2.7 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.6 10.5 84.6 52.8 46.4 2.2 3.2 6.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.3 3.2 11.4 93.6 54.3 47.5 1.0 3.0 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 0.9 4.4 10.9 99.2 57.6 46.0 0.8 2.8 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.1 10.6 91.3 53.6 47.4 0.2 1.8 6.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.1 3.3 9.9 89.4 57.9 46.5 0.5 2.4 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.6 13.3 92.9 54.4 47.7 2.2 5.1 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.1 8.0 79.2 51.6 45.9 0.5 2.0 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------