***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.4 10.7 110.7 62.5 50.0 2.5 5.6 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.6 8.9 9.1 106.2 62.9 49.5 2.5 5.6 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.4 10.5 111.1 64.9 49.4 5.6 8.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.5 13.1 11.3 105.6 64.6 50.7 4.3 8.8 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.2 16.0 11.9 117.0 67.2 51.9 6.1 9.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.2 12.5 10.8 109.1 64.6 49.8 4.3 7.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.4 8.9 105.4 62.9 50.1 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.7 19.0 11.6 101.6 62.9 49.6 9.3 13.5 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.8 12.5 113.8 65.7 51.7 4.5 9.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.0 14.8 12.6 113.3 66.5 51.8 2.9 11.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.8 12.0 11.2 106.8 62.2 50.1 4.0 9.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.8 10.1 94.8 59.2 48.0 2.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.6 16.0 11.7 112.9 64.5 50.3 3.7 9.6 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.0 17.8 13.7 111.8 62.7 50.2 5.6 11.8 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.2 12.4 9.0 89.5 62.3 48.5 1.0 3.5 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.1 11.0 109.9 64.7 51.5 4.1 6.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.5 8.6 101.7 62.0 48.9 3.5 4.9 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.8 12.4 13.3 109.9 64.8 50.6 2.6 9.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.1 9.4 106.5 62.9 48.5 3.3 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.7 11.1 14.3 96.5 58.9 47.4 2.6 7.0 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.5 11.9 114.4 64.3 50.4 4.6 8.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.2 8.0 9.5 105.5 61.6 48.8 1.6 5.0 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.6 11.1 10.2 107.1 63.8 47.3 3.3 8.3 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.9 17.2 12.7 111.5 64.4 49.9 4.6 13.4 17.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.5 12.4 114.9 62.7 51.6 4.5 7.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.0 10.2 95.5 55.3 46.1 3.4 6.9 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.0 11.6 112.5 62.6 51.5 4.0 6.0 9.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.8 14.8 9.8 99.2 64.1 49.9 1.7 5.6 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.1 17.9 14.0 103.6 61.7 49.2 5.7 13.8 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.9 9.3 106.3 63.4 49.3 4.0 6.1 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------