***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.1 8.9 8.5 78.1 51.7 42.6 3.8 8.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.6 9.2 8.0 83.7 55.7 46.9 5.3 8.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.0 10.3 7.2 68.0 47.6 39.7 6.5 11.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.5 9.1 7.8 64.9 46.0 38.4 4.5 10.4 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.2 8.4 8.6 66.2 43.9 38.3 6.6 9.6 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.9 5.6 6.5 58.4 41.8 35.9 4.5 7.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.1 8.9 93.0 58.5 49.7 4.5 8.6 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.1 8.0 8.3 61.6 40.9 35.8 6.4 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.9 5.0 7.4 64.3 43.6 38.4 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.4 5.9 8.4 62.4 41.2 36.4 5.0 7.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.7 7.2 8.2 65.4 45.4 37.9 4.8 8.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.9 5.8 7.3 61.7 41.9 36.5 3.9 7.7 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.5 8.8 63.7 42.2 36.7 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.6 10.5 8.3 63.9 41.7 37.5 7.1 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.9 5.9 60.9 47.6 40.8 2.8 6.3 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.5 8.0 64.1 45.6 37.9 3.9 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.9 9.4 9.2 98.4 61.0 51.2 6.6 7.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.8 8.4 58.6 37.6 34.4 5.1 7.9 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.3 10.9 7.7 77.3 53.1 44.7 4.7 9.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.1 6.9 10.7 62.0 38.9 35.4 5.7 9.3 15.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.1 8.2 7.6 66.7 45.5 39.3 6.6 9.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.2 9.1 90.7 57.4 48.6 3.9 9.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.4 7.9 7.7 73.0 49.4 42.5 5.1 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.7 8.2 7.5 60.6 40.6 36.1 7.7 9.1 16.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.8 10.7 9.7 74.5 47.8 40.5 7.1 11.9 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.9 7.3 63.4 43.2 36.7 3.0 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 10.5 9.3 80.3 51.6 42.7 3.8 10.4 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.5 5.2 6.4 59.8 45.9 38.5 3.9 5.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.7 11.7 8.9 58.2 36.6 33.8 10.0 12.8 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.8 9.3 7.7 80.0 53.4 45.4 4.9 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------