***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 6.4 7.4 6.6 2.9 83.4 81.8 2.5 3.7 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 5.6 6.3 6.7 3.0 82.9 81.8 2.0 3.6 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 7.1 8.0 7.2 3.1 83.9 82.4 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 2.1 3.3 4.3 3.2 85.2 83.0 -0.8 0.3 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 6.5 7.5 5.3 3.0 83.5 81.5 3.4 4.6 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 6.3 7.0 4.3 2.6 81.1 78.8 2.9 4.2 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 5.1 6.4 6.4 2.9 82.9 81.5 1.3 3.2 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 0.8 1.3 4.8 2.6 83.5 79.2 -1.7 -0.1 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 7.4 8.8 6.3 3.1 83.9 81.6 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 6.4 7.3 5.6 2.9 84.4 80.2 3.6 4.5 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 6.9 7.9 5.5 3.0 83.8 81.3 3.8 4.7 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 7.1 8.0 5.1 2.7 83.4 80.2 4.2 5.3 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 6.3 6.9 4.9 2.6 81.4 78.0 3.1 4.7 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 7.6 8.2 7.2 3.2 85.2 82.0 4.1 5.8 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 6.7 8.0 5.4 3.3 87.5 83.9 1.7 3.4 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 7.2 8.4 4.9 2.8 82.2 79.8 4.0 5.2 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 5.3 5.9 6.5 2.9 82.8 82.0 1.2 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 3.9 4.5 5.5 2.7 83.2 78.6 1.5 3.0 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 6.2 7.1 6.9 3.1 83.3 82.2 2.6 3.8 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 3.3 3.8 3.6 2.2 80.9 75.6 0.8 1.9 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 7.1 8.1 6.8 3.0 83.8 81.8 4.1 5.0 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 5.9 6.5 6.7 2.9 82.9 81.9 1.9 3.6 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 5.9 6.6 7.3 3.2 84.4 82.8 2.7 3.6 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 7.7 8.9 6.8 3.0 83.7 81.1 4.6 5.7 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 5.5 6.8 5.5 3.0 85.2 82.2 2.6 2.9 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 5.7 6.4 4.3 2.4 81.7 78.3 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 6.8 7.9 6.1 2.8 83.6 81.2 3.5 4.4 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 7.4 8.5 4.8 3.2 84.6 82.1 2.5 4.2 6.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 3.9 4.3 4.8 2.5 82.3 77.8 0.9 2.9 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 5.5 6.8 6.6 3.0 82.8 81.8 1.8 3.4 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------