***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 5.2 5.4 6.1 3.0 71.4 70.8 2.7 3.5 4.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 5.2 5.7 6.2 3.1 72.7 71.6 1.4 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 6.3 6.7 6.7 3.1 72.3 70.9 2.9 4.8 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 2.5 3.0 3.8 3.1 74.2 71.8 -2.8 0.3 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.4 4.8 3.0 73.2 71.1 3.3 4.4 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 6.1 5.8 4.0 2.6 69.1 68.7 2.5 4.3 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 4.7 5.3 6.1 3.1 73.4 71.8 1.1 3.1 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 1.7 2.8 4.6 2.8 73.1 70.0 -1.8 -1.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.6 5.7 3.0 72.2 70.5 3.6 5.3 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.2 5.2 3.0 73.0 70.1 2.8 4.5 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 6.3 6.5 4.8 2.9 72.9 70.6 3.0 4.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 7.6 7.1 4.7 2.7 71.3 69.7 3.2 4.9 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 5.9 5.9 4.1 2.5 69.4 69.0 2.8 3.5 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 6.9 7.6 6.4 3.1 73.4 70.0 3.0 5.1 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.3 4.5 3.1 74.1 71.5 2.6 4.6 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 6.7 6.5 4.4 2.8 71.5 69.9 3.6 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 4.5 4.9 6.1 3.0 72.3 71.0 1.4 3.2 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 4.1 4.1 5.4 2.9 70.7 69.6 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 5.6 6.1 6.4 3.1 72.5 71.4 1.6 3.8 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 4.5 3.7 3.5 2.6 70.9 69.1 0.6 1.3 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.1 6.2 3.0 71.9 70.5 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 5.4 5.8 6.2 2.9 72.7 70.7 2.2 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 5.2 5.2 6.8 3.1 72.0 71.0 2.1 3.6 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 7.1 7.3 6.2 3.0 72.0 70.1 3.2 5.2 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 4.7 5.2 4.7 3.0 72.5 70.8 2.3 3.2 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 6.7 6.2 4.0 2.5 70.1 69.9 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 5.3 5.7 5.6 2.9 71.7 70.5 2.3 3.7 4.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 6.6 6.8 4.2 3.1 73.2 71.1 3.6 4.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 4.8 3.9 4.8 2.8 69.8 69.3 0.9 2.4 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 5.1 5.4 6.2 3.1 72.4 71.7 1.4 3.6 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------