***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.9 5.1 1.8 65.1 62.0 1.8 5.2 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 5.8 6.3 5.2 2.0 65.9 63.4 1.1 3.6 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.8 7.7 5.7 2.0 65.2 62.7 2.1 5.0 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.7 3.3 2.8 2.0 66.4 63.5 -2.2 -0.2 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.2 3.7 1.8 63.4 62.1 1.9 4.8 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.8 2.8 1.2 59.2 57.7 1.7 3.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.9 5.1 1.9 65.3 63.1 0.5 3.6 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.2 1.5 3.4 1.6 60.4 61.3 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.1 4.6 1.8 62.6 61.4 2.1 5.8 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.2 4.0 1.7 60.2 60.7 1.1 4.6 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.6 3.7 1.8 61.6 61.9 1.7 4.8 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.4 3.7 1.6 60.7 61.7 2.3 5.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.6 3.0 1.3 57.0 59.2 1.6 4.8 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.3 5.3 1.9 62.3 61.8 1.3 7.1 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.6 3.7 2.2 68.7 65.8 1.0 3.7 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.8 3.3 1.6 60.4 60.4 2.2 5.5 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 4.1 5.6 5.3 1.9 65.1 63.3 0.5 3.4 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.1 3.5 4.1 1.6 59.4 60.0 0.4 2.1 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.1 6.8 5.5 2.1 65.6 63.5 0.7 4.5 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.8 2.4 2.3 1.2 57.8 59.7 -0.1 1.7 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.7 5.1 1.8 63.8 61.7 2.2 5.2 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.4 7.0 5.4 1.9 64.9 63.5 0.8 3.7 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.7 6.6 5.9 2.1 65.2 63.1 1.1 4.1 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.3 5.1 1.9 62.5 61.6 2.2 7.5 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 6.0 5.7 3.7 1.7 64.5 61.8 2.1 4.0 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.0 2.9 1.3 59.1 60.5 1.8 4.3 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.4 7.0 4.5 1.6 62.9 61.4 2.2 4.5 7.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 4.8 6.9 3.2 2.0 65.5 63.0 1.2 3.7 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 0.6 4.4 3.6 1.5 59.1 59.9 0.9 2.4 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 5.9 6.2 5.2 2.0 65.7 63.2 0.8 3.9 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------