***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 6.7 8.5 6.9 2.9 80.9 73.7 0.5 3.3 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 6.7 8.3 7.1 3.0 80.5 74.5 0.4 3.6 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 8.5 9.6 7.5 2.9 79.7 73.2 1.5 6.1 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 3.6 5.0 4.5 3.0 79.8 72.2 -2.3 1.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 7.5 8.7 5.5 2.8 79.6 71.7 1.7 4.5 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 7.2 8.1 4.3 2.4 75.4 68.7 2.1 4.3 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 6.4 8.0 6.9 2.9 80.2 74.5 -0.1 3.4 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 1.2 2.0 5.0 2.4 78.1 69.7 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 8.7 9.5 6.4 2.7 79.3 72.4 2.4 6.5 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 7.4 8.2 5.7 2.6 77.9 70.1 2.3 4.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 7.8 9.1 5.8 2.7 79.3 71.5 1.8 4.8 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 8.7 9.8 5.3 2.5 79.6 71.1 2.3 6.1 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 7.6 8.6 5.2 2.4 76.9 68.9 2.5 4.7 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 9.2 10.2 7.3 2.8 76.2 71.2 2.2 4.9 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 7.6 9.3 5.8 3.2 80.2 74.9 1.3 3.8 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 8.0 9.1 5.2 2.6 78.5 70.6 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 6.3 7.8 6.9 2.9 80.1 74.5 -0.1 2.9 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 4.8 5.2 5.5 2.4 75.0 69.2 1.4 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 7.6 9.6 7.3 3.1 80.9 74.5 0.0 4.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 4.8 5.4 3.8 2.0 73.0 66.5 -0.9 1.8 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 8.4 9.2 7.0 2.8 78.8 72.0 1.9 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 7.2 9.0 7.1 2.9 81.2 74.1 0.6 3.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 7.1 8.5 7.5 3.1 81.2 74.2 0.7 4.3 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 9.2 10.2 6.9 2.7 75.7 70.9 2.3 6.1 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 6.7 7.9 5.8 2.8 78.9 72.0 1.1 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 6.4 7.0 4.3 2.2 75.3 68.6 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 8.0 9.1 6.4 2.8 79.8 72.5 1.5 5.8 7.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 8.2 10.1 5.1 3.0 77.7 71.6 0.9 4.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 5.3 5.6 4.9 2.2 75.2 68.7 0.8 2.5 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 6.8 8.2 7.1 3.0 80.7 74.4 0.2 3.8 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------