***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.4 9.4 8.1 4.0 90.4 89.8 2.4 4.3 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 8.0 8.8 8.1 3.8 89.9 87.3 2.3 4.0 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.3 10.9 9.0 4.4 91.0 89.3 3.4 5.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 3.5 5.7 6.2 4.8 93.0 91.6 -1.0 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 8.7 10.0 7.3 4.4 91.1 89.4 2.9 5.2 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 7.6 10.0 6.0 4.3 90.8 89.0 1.7 4.5 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 7.5 8.5 7.6 3.5 86.9 86.1 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 1.4 2.0 6.2 3.7 86.9 84.8 -2.4 -0.4 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 9.8 11.8 8.3 4.6 93.4 91.0 2.9 6.3 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 8.7 9.3 7.4 4.3 89.9 87.5 2.9 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 8.6 10.8 7.8 4.5 92.1 89.3 3.1 5.1 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 8.7 10.0 6.7 4.0 88.4 86.8 3.2 6.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 8.7 9.6 7.2 4.1 85.8 85.6 2.9 6.0 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 9.7 11.2 9.7 5.0 91.7 90.0 3.9 6.1 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 6.0 9.6 7.5 4.6 93.4 90.5 1.2 3.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 8.9 11.1 6.9 4.3 89.7 88.0 3.3 6.4 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 7.4 8.6 7.8 3.7 90.6 87.5 1.9 3.5 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 5.9 6.8 7.0 4.1 86.5 85.4 1.5 2.5 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 8.7 9.3 8.4 4.0 90.7 87.8 2.7 4.9 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 4.4 5.3 4.8 3.1 82.9 80.2 -0.6 1.4 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 9.2 10.4 9.0 4.6 91.8 90.6 3.1 6.1 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 8.1 9.4 8.3 3.8 90.8 87.1 2.7 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 7.9 9.5 8.9 4.4 92.3 89.8 2.3 4.3 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 9.7 11.8 8.9 4.5 89.3 88.3 4.4 6.6 8.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 6.4 8.8 7.9 4.6 94.2 92.4 2.7 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 7.7 8.6 5.8 3.8 86.3 85.6 2.3 4.8 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.3 10.2 7.8 4.1 90.6 89.8 3.2 5.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 7.4 10.4 6.9 4.6 91.4 89.3 2.6 5.4 6.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 4.6 6.0 6.1 3.7 85.0 83.7 -0.8 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 7.9 8.4 8.0 3.7 89.1 87.1 2.6 3.8 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------