***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 -0.1 0.5 0.1 2.7 82.9 79.8 -3.2 -2.5 -1.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 -1.0 -0.2 0.1 2.7 84.0 80.5 -3.8 -2.6 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 1.0 1.9 0.2 2.7 85.5 81.8 -1.9 -0.8 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 -3.9 -2.4 -2.0 3.4 90.2 86.3 -7.2 -5.8 -4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 -1.4 -0.6 -1.8 2.9 84.7 81.6 -3.7 -3.2 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 -2.8 -2.1 -4.3 2.6 80.8 78.0 -4.6 -4.0 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 -0.9 0.0 0.1 2.7 83.9 79.9 -4.1 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 -5.6 -5.3 -4.0 2.4 78.6 76.8 -8.3 -7.1 -6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 -0.4 0.4 -1.8 2.6 82.3 79.5 -3.2 -2.3 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 -1.4 -0.9 -3.3 2.5 79.6 77.1 -3.9 -2.9 -2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 -1.4 -0.8 -2.7 2.7 81.0 79.1 -4.1 -3.3 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 -2.2 -1.7 -3.2 2.7 80.3 78.5 -4.6 -3.8 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 -2.0 -1.6 -3.7 2.4 78.6 75.5 -4.1 -3.4 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 -0.5 0.0 -1.9 2.6 81.7 79.4 -2.8 -1.6 -1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 -0.6 0.4 -0.9 3.3 94.2 88.6 -4.4 -2.9 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 -1.1 -0.6 -3.2 2.7 81.0 78.4 -3.2 -2.3 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 -1.3 -0.1 0.3 2.8 84.6 81.2 -4.3 -2.8 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 -3.5 -2.7 -3.8 2.5 81.3 77.0 -6.6 -4.9 -3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 2.7 83.9 80.8 -3.6 -2.5 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 -6.0 -5.2 -4.9 2.3 79.4 75.4 -9.4 -7.8 -6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 -0.8 0.0 -0.6 2.7 84.1 80.9 -3.5 -2.8 -1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 -1.5 -0.3 0.2 2.7 84.1 81.4 -4.4 -3.1 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 -1.3 -0.2 -0.4 2.6 83.6 80.9 -3.2 -2.4 -1.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 -1.2 -0.8 -2.1 2.6 83.8 79.8 -3.6 -2.5 -2.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 -0.7 0.0 -0.7 3.0 85.0 81.8 -3.2 -2.5 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 -2.0 -1.6 -3.6 2.5 77.8 76.8 -4.3 -3.1 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 2.8 82.8 79.3 -3.8 -1.8 -0.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 -1.6 -0.9 -1.9 3.3 89.2 85.7 -5.1 -3.3 -2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 -3.5 -2.7 -4.4 2.4 80.0 76.1 -5.4 -4.9 -4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 -0.5 0.2 0.1 2.7 84.2 80.6 -3.7 -2.4 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------