***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 0.5 1.5 0.8 3.0 78.0 74.6 -4.5 -2.0 0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 -0.1 0.7 0.7 2.9 80.0 74.0 -4.7 -2.7 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 1.7 2.3 0.8 3.0 77.8 75.4 -2.7 -0.5 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 -2.6 -1.3 -1.4 3.4 85.2 78.9 -8.2 -5.0 -3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 3.1 78.7 75.4 -3.6 -2.4 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 -1.6 -1.3 -3.8 2.7 75.9 72.0 -5.4 -2.6 -1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 -0.1 0.8 0.8 2.9 76.8 73.6 -4.5 -2.5 -0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 -4.9 -4.3 -3.3 2.7 73.3 71.6 -10.0 -6.8 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 0.4 0.9 -1.0 3.1 77.9 77.1 -3.8 -1.7 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 -1.1 -0.8 -2.6 2.8 74.9 72.9 -4.0 -2.2 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 -0.7 -0.3 -1.9 3.0 75.8 74.5 -4.1 -2.4 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 -1.5 -0.9 -2.5 2.9 72.9 72.6 -5.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 -1.0 -0.7 -3.0 2.6 73.1 70.3 -4.1 -2.0 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 0.1 0.5 -1.2 2.9 76.1 73.3 -3.8 -1.5 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 0.2 0.9 -0.1 3.6 89.0 84.1 -4.0 -1.9 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 -0.3 -0.1 -2.5 2.9 75.3 73.1 -3.4 -1.2 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 -0.7 0.4 0.9 3.0 77.9 73.9 -4.7 -3.5 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 -2.5 -2.4 -3.0 2.7 74.3 71.7 -6.6 -3.5 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 -0.3 0.5 0.6 2.8 80.0 74.1 -4.7 -2.2 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -4.2 -3.8 -4.4 2.3 69.3 66.9 -8.2 -6.9 -3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 0.3 0.9 0.3 3.1 78.0 76.4 -4.0 -1.7 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 -0.6 0.4 0.8 2.9 78.4 73.5 -4.8 -3.0 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 -0.5 0.3 0.2 2.8 77.8 74.3 -4.3 -2.3 -0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 -0.7 -0.4 -1.3 2.9 78.2 74.4 -4.1 -2.0 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 -0.6 0.1 0.1 3.2 80.5 76.2 -3.3 -2.1 -0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 -1.2 -1.2 -3.1 2.4 71.4 69.4 -5.1 -2.1 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 0.7 1.5 0.5 3.1 77.6 74.0 -2.6 -1.2 0.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 -0.9 -0.3 -1.2 3.4 84.0 78.9 -4.4 -3.2 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 -2.4 -2.7 -3.9 2.7 72.4 70.1 -7.2 -3.3 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 0.4 1.3 0.7 2.9 78.2 74.2 -4.3 -2.1 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------