***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 0.5 0.6 1.2 3.1 78.3 79.7 -4.3 -1.4 0.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 80.1 79.9 -4.2 -1.6 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 1.8 2.0 1.2 2.9 78.3 78.4 -2.1 -0.1 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -2.7 -0.5 0.2 4.5 96.2 94.4 -7.0 -5.4 -3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 0.3 0.7 0.3 3.6 81.9 81.5 -4.3 -1.6 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 -0.8 -0.4 -2.4 3.6 84.7 83.6 -5.7 -3.1 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 0.3 0.7 1.2 3.1 79.1 79.2 -4.0 -1.6 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 -5.1 -4.9 -2.5 3.0 76.1 75.5 -9.2 -7.0 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 0.9 1.1 -0.9 2.7 74.8 73.9 -3.4 -1.5 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 -0.6 -0.2 -2.1 2.7 73.2 73.0 -3.9 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 -0.3 0.1 -1.0 3.1 77.7 76.8 -4.6 -2.7 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 -0.7 0.1 -1.2 3.5 82.4 80.6 -5.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 -0.4 0.1 -1.8 3.1 76.7 76.0 -4.8 -2.3 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 0.2 0.8 -0.5 3.0 79.5 77.6 -2.9 -1.6 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 0.1 1.6 0.7 3.8 93.0 90.3 -4.7 -2.5 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 0.6 1.0 -1.2 3.4 79.7 79.7 -3.3 -1.5 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 0.2 1.1 1.7 3.6 85.1 84.5 -3.6 -2.3 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 -2.2 -2.0 -1.9 3.1 77.2 76.9 -6.6 -3.9 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 0.4 0.9 0.9 2.9 80.0 79.2 -3.0 -1.5 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 -3.4 -2.8 -2.6 3.5 80.0 80.6 -10.1 -6.5 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 0.4 0.6 0.6 2.9 77.3 77.3 -4.2 -1.1 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 -0.3 0.6 1.7 3.4 84.7 84.2 -3.4 -2.0 -1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 2.7 79.3 78.0 -3.9 -1.7 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 -0.5 0.0 -0.6 2.9 76.9 76.4 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 -0.1 0.0 1.2 3.6 83.9 84.2 -3.8 -1.4 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.4 0.1 -1.0 3.9 84.4 85.1 -4.6 -3.1 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 1.1 1.2 1.2 3.4 79.7 80.2 -3.9 -0.8 0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 -0.7 0.3 0.2 4.3 94.0 91.2 -5.6 -3.2 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 -2.5 -2.0 -3.0 3.1 73.9 74.7 -7.3 -5.1 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 0.5 0.7 1.1 2.9 78.7 78.4 -3.8 -1.3 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------