***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 34.3 43.5 52.0 123.4 70.0 63.3 18.3 30.3 41.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 34.9 39.2 41.4 109.5 59.9 56.4 25.4 30.8 44.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 48.0 53.1 50.2 118.7 68.4 61.0 25.6 45.1 52.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 44.5 61.1 58.0 124.2 71.0 64.1 26.6 40.3 57.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 44.6 59.0 61.4 129.9 73.9 67.1 28.8 41.3 51.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 32.8 41.5 54.6 121.0 68.8 62.5 22.2 29.2 39.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 36.4 40.6 41.5 112.2 61.8 57.7 24.4 33.0 43.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 70.8 64.3 64.0 126.6 71.7 65.5 35.4 50.2 54.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 31.8 44.8 58.9 122.1 69.3 63.5 18.7 28.9 43.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 37.0 43.6 63.6 125.9 71.0 65.4 23.6 35.1 43.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 47.3 56.3 59.9 128.6 73.4 67.0 23.9 34.5 49.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 43.5 43.5 57.8 124.6 71.1 64.3 26.7 31.1 42.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 46 54 100 48.5 49.3 62.8 129.9 74.2 67.2 23.9 33.6 43.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 53.7 65.6 60.4 116.5 66.9 59.5 35.7 49.2 64.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 46.2 53.4 48.5 110.2 63.9 58.0 18.2 42.5 53.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 36.5 51.1 58.0 126.2 73.1 65.3 22.2 33.0 47.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 32.8 32.3 39.1 105.7 58.0 54.7 20.9 28.8 35.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 35.1 45.5 65.5 123.8 69.7 64.0 22.6 31.4 39.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 40.9 43.9 43.3 110.5 60.1 56.8 24.8 37.3 50.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 44.7 57.6 79.3 123.7 71.0 63.7 26.0 40.2 55.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 41.4 52.6 56.1 122.1 69.2 63.4 24.4 38.9 48.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 38.8 37.9 40.4 103.2 57.3 53.4 22.2 34.9 45.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 37.7 44.1 47.3 112.6 62.2 57.6 20.7 34.2 47.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 44.7 54.8 59.4 120.7 68.3 62.1 31.9 42.3 54.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 47 53 100 52.7 58.5 62.3 131.2 71.8 67.4 25.0 42.7 54.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 29.8 46.0 59.1 126.2 73.5 64.1 17.0 24.4 37.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 43.1 53.5 56.3 127.9 70.6 65.4 18.7 39.5 52.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 39.9 51.8 51.1 116.0 67.0 60.6 17.1 36.2 51.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 59.6 68.2 69.9 124.1 70.7 64.0 41.7 55.3 64.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 38.5 45.0 44.4 114.8 63.2 58.9 18.9 34.8 50.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------