***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.5 5.4 11.9 120.3 65.3 55.8 0.1 3.2 5.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.8 8.8 11.5 134.4 69.3 59.2 0.3 2.8 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.0 11.8 121.2 65.9 55.9 0.4 4.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.8 11.3 14.4 125.4 68.1 58.6 2.6 5.6 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.7 7.5 13.2 114.0 62.3 55.5 0.6 4.0 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.1 6.3 12.3 108.8 66.7 53.6 0.5 2.1 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.9 7.1 11.6 135.1 69.0 59.0 0.4 2.2 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.4 13.1 105.2 61.9 52.3 2.3 7.6 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 4.6 5.9 12.8 106.5 60.6 53.0 0.7 3.6 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.7 13.0 103.7 59.2 51.9 1.2 3.5 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.2 5.6 12.6 111.1 63.8 54.8 0.5 2.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.4 6.0 12.3 108.6 64.6 53.0 1.0 4.2 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.0 8.4 13.2 112.1 65.9 53.8 0.4 3.0 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.6 14.2 118.1 64.6 54.4 3.1 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.2 8.6 14.8 134.8 74.1 60.7 0.8 5.4 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 3.2 5.6 12.8 113.5 66.8 55.2 0.5 1.6 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.2 7.1 11.1 130.0 68.6 58.8 0.4 2.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.8 5.2 13.2 102.6 58.3 50.4 2.4 3.6 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 11.8 11.6 132.2 69.4 59.1 0.5 4.0 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.3 6.3 16.9 104.5 61.0 51.6 1.6 4.5 6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.1 9.9 12.4 112.2 62.3 53.9 1.0 3.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.9 8.5 11.2 126.5 69.2 59.4 0.3 2.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.4 12.3 129.5 69.1 58.4 0.2 3.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.8 12.8 110.7 62.3 52.8 1.4 3.8 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.4 9.5 13.5 118.3 63.9 55.6 0.3 2.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 3.2 4.8 13.7 119.6 68.3 54.9 0.8 1.8 3.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.7 4.7 12.3 117.8 64.1 55.3 0.2 3.5 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.6 7.4 13.6 123.6 71.0 58.7 0.8 4.6 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.9 14.3 104.3 59.7 50.5 4.1 7.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 9.3 5.7 11.9 134.6 68.7 58.7 0.4 1.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------