***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 3.0 4.9 14.3 123.9 68.6 60.3 0.4 2.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.2 6.3 12.5 121.9 70.0 59.3 0.9 1.7 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.4 7.0 13.5 117.5 66.6 58.6 1.2 3.4 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 5.6 9.0 15.6 121.0 66.6 58.4 0.8 4.3 9.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.4 7.9 15.0 117.8 63.7 57.5 2.3 5.1 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.5 14.3 117.3 65.6 54.4 0.6 3.0 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.0 5.8 12.6 125.5 70.7 59.8 0.8 1.3 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.9 11.3 18.0 133.5 70.9 59.9 2.0 6.7 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.0 5.6 14.8 110.8 61.6 55.8 0.4 2.7 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.5 8.0 16.1 117.2 64.4 56.8 1.2 4.6 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.3 15.3 125.6 67.4 58.5 0.5 5.1 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.5 9.0 16.3 134.4 71.2 59.6 0.9 2.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.9 15.6 126.3 68.6 57.4 0.6 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.6 15.5 111.5 64.8 55.8 2.4 5.4 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.8 7.9 15.3 118.7 67.7 57.4 0.6 3.2 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.0 7.3 15.0 126.2 67.9 57.8 0.8 3.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.7 7.6 13.1 131.2 70.3 60.4 1.2 3.3 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.6 7.3 16.8 115.8 64.4 56.7 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.6 6.9 12.7 119.7 68.7 58.7 1.0 3.2 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 5.9 12.8 24.9 139.5 74.0 61.9 1.5 3.8 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 3.9 6.0 14.4 115.2 65.1 58.2 1.6 2.5 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 7.6 6.9 13.5 128.2 69.7 60.0 1.4 3.6 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.9 13.2 117.0 66.0 57.4 1.3 3.4 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.0 7.6 14.9 110.4 62.9 56.0 2.4 4.4 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.7 7.3 15.7 120.7 65.3 59.6 1.1 2.9 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.6 15.9 129.7 68.4 59.2 0.6 4.2 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.1 6.6 14.8 122.7 68.1 59.8 0.3 2.9 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 3.8 8.7 14.6 118.6 67.1 56.7 0.2 2.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.8 10.4 19.0 123.4 67.3 58.5 2.4 5.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.6 5.9 12.9 122.2 70.1 59.1 0.8 2.3 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------