***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.7 14.1 14.5 136.0 70.6 61.5 1.8 5.6 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.1 9.0 10.2 109.4 62.5 54.5 2.1 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.5 19.9 14.0 132.1 70.2 60.6 5.6 8.2 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 18.2 21.7 15.6 141.6 76.7 63.0 5.8 11.4 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 19.3 20.5 16.1 139.7 75.5 62.7 7.1 12.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.7 14.7 15.1 136.7 74.8 62.3 5.1 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 9.4 11.9 10.0 111.9 63.0 55.0 2.7 7.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.0 24.4 17.0 130.8 70.6 59.5 9.2 14.3 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.1 15.8 16.9 139.4 75.3 63.4 6.9 9.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.7 17.3 136.1 73.2 61.6 4.7 11.7 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 13.0 14.2 16.3 135.9 74.2 62.1 5.3 9.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.7 14.5 15.7 128.3 70.0 59.7 5.4 9.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.5 17.5 16.4 134.9 71.1 62.8 6.1 10.8 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.0 21.0 17.2 129.9 71.9 59.9 6.6 13.9 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.7 16.2 12.0 119.6 70.2 56.9 1.6 6.6 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 15.7 18.0 15.9 138.1 74.2 63.4 5.2 8.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.2 9.0 8.8 99.1 58.9 52.8 3.7 4.6 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 13.8 15.1 18.3 135.9 71.6 62.0 5.1 9.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.2 11.5 11.1 113.5 64.7 54.8 2.5 8.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 17.8 19.6 120.8 65.9 56.4 4.8 10.3 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.8 16.0 138.8 73.9 63.6 4.7 8.7 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.1 9.2 96.7 58.5 51.5 1.8 5.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.0 12.6 118.3 67.8 55.3 2.3 8.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.9 18.2 17.2 136.5 72.5 62.6 5.7 16.5 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.6 19.9 16.2 140.2 73.7 62.5 4.5 8.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.7 14.3 14.8 121.6 67.8 57.1 3.9 7.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.6 16.4 15.7 142.6 73.9 62.9 4.1 5.9 10.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.3 17.0 13.5 130.7 73.2 59.8 2.7 10.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 21.3 19.1 131.4 70.1 60.5 8.1 14.4 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.8 9.6 11.5 119.6 66.2 56.9 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------