***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 7.5 12.1 11.3 112.5 64.3 63.2 3.8 6.4 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 7.5 10.0 7.2 74.5 54.1 50.7 4.4 6.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 12.3 14.7 10.9 104.1 62.5 60.4 6.6 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 11.5 13.6 12.4 109.6 64.0 62.8 5.4 10.6 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 17.1 18.7 17.1 149.1 76.4 72.6 7.1 9.9 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 8.6 11.7 13.0 121.2 66.7 62.7 3.5 7.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 10.5 10.5 7.4 77.8 55.1 52.0 3.8 9.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 20.3 20.3 16.0 136.3 72.6 67.6 7.9 12.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 12.0 11.9 14.5 134.0 72.1 69.1 3.2 4.9 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 12.5 14.1 17.2 148.9 76.9 72.3 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 17.7 19.3 15.8 141.9 74.6 70.7 5.7 9.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 9.4 12.0 13.6 125.9 69.1 64.7 4.0 7.9 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.3 18.4 17.6 145.8 75.5 69.8 3.7 6.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 13.8 17.3 13.5 106.5 62.1 60.5 6.5 11.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 8.8 7.5 6.4 63.3 52.6 49.6 1.1 7.0 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 11.4 13.3 14.3 126.7 70.4 65.7 3.2 7.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 9.2 8.1 6.1 63.8 51.3 46.9 5.2 7.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 10.8 11.7 17.1 142.8 75.1 71.2 5.3 7.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 9.8 11.3 7.9 78.8 54.7 52.0 4.3 8.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 16.0 16.3 17.9 127.4 70.1 65.6 5.0 11.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 13.4 14.9 13.2 122.7 69.3 66.7 5.6 9.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 10.0 9.2 6.4 62.7 49.2 46.3 4.9 9.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 8.5 8.1 9.2 86.8 55.7 54.6 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 13.9 14.2 14.5 126.1 69.8 66.9 5.4 9.1 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 20.9 22.4 17.0 146.5 75.3 72.7 6.5 10.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 12.9 14.7 14.8 134.2 68.8 65.9 3.0 9.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 17.0 17.0 13.5 128.7 68.9 67.1 3.8 7.7 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 8.5 7.4 9.4 89.5 58.9 56.1 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 20.3 21.0 17.4 137.2 74.1 69.2 7.9 14.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 8.5 12.4 8.1 84.0 56.2 53.8 4.9 7.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------