***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.4 3.2 3.1 0.0 43.9 48.1 2.2 3.8 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.6 3.7 0.5 51.7 53.5 1.9 3.5 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.8 3.6 0.0 45.1 48.6 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.0 0.1 0.4 -0.2 46.8 46.5 -0.7 0.5 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.4 1.7 -0.1 47.1 47.9 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.8 3.8 0.6 -0.5 41.6 44.4 2.8 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.8 3.5 3.5 0.5 53.2 53.5 1.1 3.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.3 -0.7 1.2 -0.4 42.7 44.7 -1.5 0.1 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.8 2.9 0.2 50.3 51.3 4.2 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.0 1.9 -0.3 44.5 46.3 3.2 4.6 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.7 1.9 0.0 49.0 48.9 3.4 4.9 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.9 4.9 1.6 -0.1 46.6 47.8 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.3 1.2 -0.4 43.7 44.9 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.6 3.6 0.2 50.4 51.3 4.2 5.6 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.9 2.2 0.6 54.1 55.1 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.0 1.2 -0.3 45.4 46.5 3.7 5.4 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.5 3.7 3.9 0.7 55.7 56.5 0.9 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.6 1.8 -0.4 41.9 44.6 1.3 2.9 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.3 3.7 3.8 0.4 50.0 52.6 2.4 3.7 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -0.1 0.6 0.0 -0.9 34.0 39.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.9 3.4 0.2 48.5 50.7 3.8 4.9 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.6 4.1 0.7 55.2 55.9 1.8 3.5 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.9 3.9 0.3 49.3 51.9 2.5 3.9 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.3 3.2 0.0 46.5 49.0 4.7 5.5 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.9 2.9 1.8 -0.2 42.7 46.2 2.4 3.1 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.5 0.7 -0.5 39.8 43.1 3.2 4.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.9 2.5 -0.3 40.8 45.4 3.7 4.2 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.1 1.3 0.1 49.5 49.8 2.6 4.1 6.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.3 1.5 1.2 -0.5 40.1 43.2 1.0 2.7 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.3 3.3 0.2 47.5 50.4 1.6 3.4 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------