***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.6 3.2 0.4 52.8 52.0 1.6 4.5 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.2 4.7 3.3 0.6 52.7 53.8 0.9 4.0 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.6 6.5 3.7 0.6 54.8 53.3 1.9 5.8 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 47.9 49.8 -2.0 1.4 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.7 1.7 0.4 53.2 52.2 1.9 4.4 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.2 1.4 0.6 55.6 53.8 1.0 3.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 0.7 3.7 3.3 0.6 54.1 53.9 0.5 3.2 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.5 52.9 53.0 -1.0 1.3 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.1 2.7 0.5 56.0 53.2 2.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.0 2.1 0.5 54.7 53.1 1.2 4.7 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.6 1.8 0.5 55.2 53.5 1.7 4.6 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.7 1.8 0.6 54.1 53.9 2.2 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.5 1.4 0.5 54.6 53.3 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.9 3.5 0.8 57.2 54.7 1.6 6.1 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.9 3.4 1.2 0.1 51.1 51.0 0.8 3.3 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.5 1.4 0.5 54.7 53.0 2.4 5.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 0.5 3.8 3.6 0.7 55.3 54.8 0.3 3.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 2.8 2.9 2.3 0.5 54.0 53.0 0.8 2.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.1 3.5 0.7 53.0 53.7 0.7 4.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.1 0.6 0.3 50.3 51.1 -0.7 2.0 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.0 3.2 0.6 56.1 53.3 2.0 5.0 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.9 3.6 0.7 54.4 54.2 0.7 3.3 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.3 5.0 3.9 0.7 54.1 53.9 0.9 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.6 3.2 0.6 56.1 53.7 2.0 6.7 10.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.9 1.6 0.1 50.8 50.1 1.7 3.7 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.3 1.1 0.3 52.6 52.4 1.8 4.3 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 1.7 4.6 2.6 0.2 51.5 50.9 2.0 4.3 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.5 3.1 0.8 0.2 51.4 51.3 1.9 3.0 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.6 2.7 1.8 0.5 52.7 52.7 0.1 2.5 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.0 3.8 3.2 0.5 51.1 53.1 0.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------