***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.5 2.1 2.8 -0.3 40.5 46.2 0.4 3.5 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.8 3.9 3.5 0.3 48.0 52.3 0.6 4.1 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.5 4.3 3.3 -0.3 42.7 47.6 1.7 5.8 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.7 -1.1 0.2 -0.7 42.8 44.2 -2.0 1.1 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.5 3.2 1.3 -0.6 40.8 43.6 1.8 4.8 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.5 1.9 -0.3 -1.5 32.2 35.7 2.2 4.7 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.2 2.9 3.2 0.2 45.4 51.2 0.1 3.4 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -3.0 -2.5 0.5 -1.2 33.8 38.7 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.6 4.7 2.5 -0.3 42.6 46.7 2.6 5.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.9 3.1 1.3 -1.1 35.9 40.6 2.6 5.2 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.6 3.1 1.6 -0.6 40.0 43.6 2.5 4.7 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.4 1.0 -0.9 37.6 41.6 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.9 2.1 0.6 -1.3 33.3 37.1 2.1 5.1 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.1 4.4 3.1 -0.4 42.6 46.6 2.8 5.0 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 4.8 4.6 2.8 0.5 54.8 55.1 1.4 4.0 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.2 0.6 -1.1 35.2 39.1 2.9 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.1 3.1 3.6 0.5 49.2 54.4 0.4 3.4 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 0.8 1.4 0.8 -1.4 33.3 37.9 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.9 3.2 3.6 0.3 47.5 51.8 0.8 4.1 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 -1.8 -1.5 -0.9 -1.9 27.8 32.8 -1.0 1.9 4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.9 4.0 3.1 -0.3 42.6 46.7 2.1 5.1 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.5 3.4 3.9 0.5 49.2 54.5 1.0 3.7 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.6 3.7 3.7 0.2 47.4 51.1 1.1 3.9 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.9 4.6 2.6 -0.7 40.0 44.0 3.6 6.1 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.5 2.2 1.5 -0.7 39.6 42.5 1.1 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.4 0.2 -1.2 34.2 37.8 2.3 4.2 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.0 2.0 -0.8 37.7 42.0 1.9 4.6 7.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.9 3.6 1.3 -0.4 45.6 47.1 1.2 5.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -0.1 0.3 0.2 -1.6 30.8 35.9 0.4 2.3 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.8 3.4 3.2 0.0 44.3 49.9 0.1 4.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------