***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.0 2.2 2.7 -1.4 32.5 33.8 2.3 4.2 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 4.3 3.3 4.0 -0.2 44.5 45.9 1.8 3.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.1 3.3 3.2 -1.6 33.9 34.5 3.3 5.2 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 1.2 -0.4 0.6 -0.9 38.7 38.9 -1.3 1.0 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 4.5 3.9 1.9 -1.1 42.1 41.2 3.4 4.0 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.3 0.7 -0.5 -2.3 29.0 28.7 1.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 3.7 2.7 3.8 -0.2 45.2 46.4 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -1.8 0.9 -1.8 32.1 32.8 -1.8 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 5.3 4.5 3.4 -0.5 46.3 45.4 3.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.9 2.9 1.8 -1.6 37.4 36.6 2.1 5.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 5.5 3.9 2.4 -1.0 41.8 41.3 3.2 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 5.9 3.9 1.5 -1.3 36.4 37.3 3.7 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.2 2.6 1.2 -2.0 30.6 32.3 2.7 5.5 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 5.8 4.6 4.1 -0.7 44.0 44.1 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 3.7 3.9 3.8 1.0 55.1 57.6 1.4 3.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 6.3 4.8 1.1 -1.6 36.6 36.6 4.1 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 3.0 2.8 4.6 0.5 53.5 54.0 2.0 2.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.5 1.7 1.4 -1.9 35.1 33.9 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 4.7 3.4 4.0 -0.5 42.6 43.6 2.4 4.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 -2.4 -1.5 -0.7 -2.7 23.4 25.1 -0.6 1.4 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 5.2 4.2 3.8 -0.8 42.9 42.4 3.1 4.8 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 95 5 100 4.1 4.0 5.0 0.6 52.7 54.1 2.4 3.9 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 4.5 3.0 3.8 -0.7 40.2 41.0 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 6.1 4.7 3.5 -1.1 40.7 39.9 3.6 5.6 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.2 2.9 2.1 -1.3 36.4 36.4 2.7 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 1.4 1.2 -0.1 -2.2 29.0 28.9 2.4 4.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.2 2.5 2.1 -1.8 30.1 31.0 3.1 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 4.3 3.7 2.0 -0.3 46.2 47.0 3.0 3.9 6.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -0.9 -1.0 0.7 -2.1 32.0 31.9 -1.0 1.8 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.5 2.6 3.2 -1.1 36.6 37.7 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------